Research (Česká spořitelna)
Finance  |  September 02, 2010 09:22:55

Ministry of Finance published the issuance calendar 4Q2010


Ministry of Finance yesterday published a calendar on the issue and update the plan 4Q/10 3Q/10 for (on = September). The plan is for the last four months of this year to issue bills for 73 billion (43 billion will go to auction 30 billion he apparently leaves the Ministry of Finance) and 50 billion bond. The current bond issue is about CZK 118 billion, net issuance of the SPP is currently 20.8 billion CZK.

  • Ministry of Finance will generally issue this year (if it goes according to plan) about bonds and 170 billion by 2011, the package will be about 110 billion bill (about 20 billion more than we brought home the Ministry of Finance from 2009 to 2010 ).

  • Ministry of Finance in the first half of the year issued very little in the second-MinFin for help (according to us unjustifiable) fears of another recession and the drop in revenues caused by the enormous perceived as safe states (Germany, USA). German desetiletka as 2.20% at the moment although it could easily, given the situation should be a higher percentage. In a region such as the state pays the CR. This is done by adding a new government, an improved credit rating (S & P, Moody's) and the result is the current level of around 3.30%.  
  •   Impact on revenues 2010: The calendar itself is not surprising - the maximum possible SPP, the rest of the bonds.   In the near future we do not see too much room for a rapid normalization of revenues - macrodata begin to deteriorate in the EMU, as the pessimistic end of the market may result in additional shopping spree.Concerns about the health of the U.S. can possibly break the mood change after the fall congressional elections or any other U.S. government fiscal package (after the withdrawal from Iraq is in the words of B. Obama   should be given to the economy), but all things are difficult to predict. By the end of the year but still waiting for some standardization - it is clear that the world economy's so bad as it sees bond investors, not really. For CR, this means a maximum of approximately 3.75%.

  • Outlook 2011: The year 2011 will graduate at 102.07 billion in bonds to   110 billion bill. The stoppage hole in the budget will be about 140 billion in total financial need and climbs to about 250 billion, which together with the work undertaken by the growth rates of central banks and governments to move away from shares by us will lead to higher yields (4% +).

 

         

Martin Lobotka
Czech Savings Bank, Inc.

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