Vladimír Urbánek (Kurzy.cz)
Finance  |  September 13, 2010 09:18:08

MS - commentary 13.09 - Weekly reboot - new batch macrodata


U.S.

O        Macro data: After a week break, get data back data to reflect the dose. Just Tuesday's retail sales will be very interesting, because household consumption is crucial for the performance of the U.S. economy. If indeed there is an expected modest growth, this should alleviate fears of another round of recession.The decline would be in terms of market sentiment very annoying. Industrial production is somewhat less important, but not for her are the same as for retail sales: if the expected modest growth, it will help to calm the market. Decline in the market rattles. Inflation data will be interesting, but their impact on the market should be very limited. In particular, the CPI should confirm bezinflační environment with a slight threat of deflation. Philadelphia Fed Index should recover after an unexpected fall and Michigan's consumer confidence index is expected stagnation.  

OFX and FI: The dollar should continue to fluctuations in the range 1.26 to 1.29 to the euro. Consistently satisfactory data should lead to weakening and vice versa. With bond yields can be expected to drift upwards, unless we see a series of markets will not be disappointed or frightened adverse developments in the European financial sector.

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Europe

O        Macro data: In Europe especially interesting German ZEW business cycle index, which currently reflects the pessimistic, the degree of hysteria prevailing in financial markets. Additional data should not ignore the market.

OFI: In Europe, as in the U.S. tendency to gradually dominate the uneven growth in revenues, it can act against the state of the European financial sector.

 

CEE region

O        Macro data:   In Hungary and the Czech Republic only less interesting data (Hungarian industry is already known, specifying only an estimate). In Poland, the most interesting of inflation and industry. For inflation, we expect annual growth stagnation. 2.0%, but according to us would already be in this year's bottom, in the coming months inflation would have to grow slowly. Due to the pro-inflationary risks from the domestic economy (growing domestic demand) and the expected development of energy and food prices, would have a central bank should begin to consider raising rates (most likely in October, when will new forecast). Industry is expected to maintain double-digit growth. Importantly, the recovery is more and more signs domestic demand, which should contribute to a decent performance in the coming months.

O        FI and FX: Regional currencies will monitor developments abroad and if the situation calms down further (in particular, provided good data for the U.S.) can be further enhanced. The ducks do not think there is a fundamental reason for the strengthening, but if we look at how to touch her panic at all, then we would in the case of euphoria in the market could see even further. CNB but it is not too thrilled.   Bond would be slowly   shifting up under the influence of higher returns abroad.

Ľuboš Mokráš
Czech Savings Bank

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