Vladimír Urbánek (Kurzy.cz)
Finance  |  October 04, 2010 09:20:02

MS - commentary 04.10 - Less data from the U.S., but more abundant, the EU rate


U.S.

O        Macro data: Compared to the previous week, while data will be less, but it will be essential. Attention is focused especially on Friday when they published data on the labor market. Gradually weakens the influence of the census, so should the overall change jobs without agriculture to get ahead.The private sector should increase the number of jobs for the 82000th T ovární orders should be in accordance with orders of durable goods. Finally, the ISM non-manufacturing should be kept above 50 and therefore the expansion.

O        FX and FI: The dollar is under pressure due to speculation on quantitative easing. The weakening in our opinion it is an exaggeration, but the momentum can bring down the dollar even lower. The bonds could weaken a little bit better prospects for the economy.

Europe

O        Macro data: In Europe, the most important event of the ECB meeting. Changes in again confess. Attention is focused on the press conference, but even there they can not wait for more substantial information. For factory orders and industrial production in Germany is expected to improve, which would rather support the market sentiment. Contrast, retail sales in EMU will consistently dull mood and would therefore not help.

O       FI: European bonds might like bonds in the U.S. continue to correct, that yields could rise slightly.  

CEE region

O        Macro data: In the CR a lot of data. As industrial production and retail sales should confirm the continued recovery of the economy (PMI indices as Czech or German IFO or orders do not indicate any growth slowdown in 3Q/10), unemployment should fall slightly below (8.4%). In general, data should be as good response to the Crown but do not expect.

FI and FX: The strengthening of Friday Duck by us will be slightly weaker at the correct level - either way, however, are the current values ??according to us very strong, the crown is at 24.40 by 60 halls. stronger than what would be by us (and even weaker values ??would not hurt), but currently it does not look to a larger correction (and the CNB, which according to existing words from Friday so do not mind, it certainly does not cause).  

 

Ľuboš Mokráš
Czech Savings Bank

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