Vladimír Urbánek (Kurzy.cz)
Finance  |  October 06, 2010 10:30:46

MS - commentary 10.06 - The dollar under pressure, the final Eurozone GDP for 2Q


Region

·      Currencies in the region generally slightly strengthened yesterday, the Crown at the close of trading returned to 24.50 after the transition to strengthen around 24.45. Currencies in the region could help slightly speculation on quantitative easing in the United States and further relaxation of monetary policy in Japan, which slightly increased optimism in the markets.Today, the market will monitor data on industrial production in Hungary, a significant reaction is unlikely. The data will be the world's most important factory orders in Germany, which could significantly affect the region over the Hungarian industrial production.

World

·    U.S. ISM non-manufacturing index slightly beat expectations rise to 53.2. The sub-indices is worth noting strong growth in new orders, increasing the likelihood of continued recovery and return of over 50 sub-indices of employment, rather to help improve labor market prospects.

·    The data published today will be the final GDP for the euro area, waiting for the changes and impact on the market should be very limited. Far more will follow factory orders in Germany.Expectations are optimistic, if confirmed it could further support a slightly more optimistic mood in global markets.

·    The dollar remains under pressure due to strong speculation the Fed's quantitative easing, thriving commodities (due to a combination of a weaker dollar, quantitative easing in Japan and speculation on quantitative easing in the U.S. and the improving prospects of China). In the near future will probably not change even after Friday's data from the labor market. In the United States.Essential information should provide up to 2 to 3 November FOMC meeting, because a lot is expected that the official announcement of quantitative easing is already at that meeting. We'm still rather skeptical, the question is whether the current situation in quantitative easing may help the real economy and whether it would rather not increase further imbalances in financial markets.

Ľuboš Mokráš
Czech Savings Bank

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