Vladimír Urbánek (Kurzy.cz)
Finance  |  December 08, 2010 09:19:35

MS - commentary 12.08 - Domestic macro yesterday, increasing the EU's stabilization fund, if necessary


CR

·      Czech retail sales fell noticeably stronger than the median analysts' expectations and our estimate than the (reality -0.7% y / y, 0.9% of the market, we 0.9%). The weakness in retail sales is no big surprise, stagnation of real wages and unemployment levels remain high simply do not allow growth in household consumption.Therefore, we can not wait to improve the situation even in the coming months, there is rather the worse. Industrial production has slightly lagged behind expectations, but rather a slight statistical fluctuations than a negative trend. It also suggests new orders in industry structure and trade balance. Trade surplus was higher than expected, the Crown but does not react. Today, the data will be supplemented with an unemployment rate for November. You can expect that it will stick close to 8.5%. Also held a five-year bond auction 3.40 / 15 in the amount of CZK 6 billion. Government bond yields in recent years generally increased mainly due to similar developments in Germany. Spread on German bonds fluctuated in recent months in the ten-year bond is about 100bp.

Region

·    The crown varies between 25.00 to 25.10 zloty against the euro and adheres slightly to 4.00. The only clearly forint strengthened yesterday (from 280 to 278 and remained so under the technical support level 279). Regional currencies should move more into the "Christmas mode" when it should begin to show less liquidity and increased voatilita relating to operations at the end of the year and much less with news and data. Generally we can expect a continuation of light pressure on the weakening of currencies in the region.

World

·    European Commissioner for Economic and Monetary Affairs Commissioner Rehn said that in February will begin another round of stress tests of the banking sector. Tests to be harder (as shown in Ireland as their first round at all difficult for any real stress tests could talk) and have to take into account the availability of cash (liquidity).Rehn also said that the EU is close to reaching a compromise regarding accounting for pension reforms and their costs in the budgets of the Member States.

·    ECB board member Malucha said that EMU stabilization fund (ESFS) will be increased if necessary. His words are in clear contradiction to what she said on Monday, German Chancellor Merkel. Similarly, contradictory statements are for EU / EMU typical and certainly not conducive to investor confidence in the ability of the EU / EMU handle their problems.

·    German industrial orders were virtually in line   expectations and confirmed a very solid performance of the German economy today, industrial production should also confirm the good performance of the industry.

Ľuboš Mokráš
Czech Savings Bank

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