World markets  |  December 09, 2010 14:16:26

Tightening monetary taps did not take place this year, will issue future bills / BIG EXPERT - foreign markets: from the 6th week 12th 2010


World stock indexes have in recent weeks have passed again after some time unusually volatile trading. The culprit this time was Europe's debt crisis, which after six months, again signed up to speak. This time, however, larger and more mature, since only one state threatens the far south, whose fiscal irresponsibility has long been crippled by a series. Now refers to several countries, including giants such as Spain and Italy, whose bonds have been in recent weeks, perhaps the most pursued securities in the world.

Despite the wild in November beginning of December brought stabilization. Ten-year Irish bond fell from 9.5 to 8 percent of Portuguese bonds yields fell within a few days from 7 to 6 percent as Spain and now borrows "only" to 5.2 percent.Due to calming the bond market gained a firmer foothold shares from the selling pressure emerged with the European currency. However, almost idyllic atmosphere disturbs one essential fact. The European Central Bank begins again significantly increase its portfolio of government bonds. Just last week the ECB purchased government bonds of unspecified countries in the eurozone € 1.97 billion, the highest since the beginning of July. In the past month the ECB purchased bonds of European countries for 3.85 billion euros, while in October the figure amounted to 1.39 billion in September even only 867 million.

The ECB is back in the game and buys in bulk. Her purchases while in the future will very likely have to continue to grow, because up until the beginning of next year, European countries have flooded financial markets Emissions fresh debt.In addition to increased activity in the bond market also the ECB at its last meeting made it clear that it was time to start yet so expected output "exit" strategy. It did so only a month after U.S. Fed decided that buys government bonds worth $ 600 billion.

Although the year 2010 be the year of monetary tightening taps, with his approaching end is becoming increasingly clear that another year of highly active monetary policy. Even in the last month of this year, so one must consider that the current stability in financial markets has little to do with the real state of the economy and is associated with considerable costs that will be felt only in the future when they start stimulating effects of monetary policy gradually subside.

Jaroslav Brychta, X-Trade Brokers

Opinions of experts on future developments in selected foreign markets monitored by indices and comparison with the Czech capital market (PX) over one month and a half years, a week from 6 12th The 2010th


Experts estimate for the period of 1 month

Pointer
Hodn.
Third 12th
Diameter
Median
Change
in%
Interval
Growth
Decrease
PX
1 166,00
1 162,33
1150
-0.31
1 140 - 1 200
2
4
Dow Jones (USA)
11 382,09
11 234,33
11 141
-1.30
11 000 - 11 500
2
4
NASDAQ (USA)
2 591,46
2 577,67
2548
-0.53
2450 - 2800
2
4
FTSE 100 (V.Brit.)
5 745,30
5 756,83
5671
0.20
5 650 - 6 000
2
4
DAX (Germany)
6 947,72
6 935,50
6875
-0.18
6775 - 7 200
2
4
Nikkei 225 (JPN)
10 187,32
10 117,00
10 014
-0.69
9700 - 10 800
2
4


Experts estimate for the period of 6 months

Pointer
Hodn.
Third 12th
Diameter
Median
Change
in%
Interval
Growth
Decrease
PX
1 166,00
1 180,17
1215
1.22
1 050 - 1 250
4
2
Dow Jones (USA)
11 382,09
11 254,00
11 650
-1.12
9800 - 11 800
4
2
NASDAQ (USA)
2 591,46
2 632,33
2725
1.58
2 200 - 2 850
4
2
FTSE 100 (V.Brit.)
5 745,30
5 791,67
6000
0.81
5050 - 6100
4
2
DAX (Germany)
6 947,72
6 983,00
7150
0.51
6200 - 7400
4
2
Nikkei 225 (JPN)
10 187,32
10 137,00
10 325
-0.49
9300 - 10 550
3
3

Comparison:

Look also to the estimates made ??lastand before last week.
All estimates can be seen in the section Expert BIG .


Reviews carried out in this week:

  • Ondrej Moravanský - Cyrrus
  • Libor Bucek, John Mach, Milan Nedbálek - FINANCE Zlin
  • Patrick Hudec - Generali PPF Asset Management, a fund manager INVEST CP
  • Charles handbag, Miroslav Hlavoň - CAPITAL GRANT
  • Roman Skalicky - LUTHERUS
  • Jaroslav Brychta - X-Trade Brokers

The tables contain a summary of estimates of experts in the list. The column "Actual value" the value of the observed indices (Friday's closing value), from which experts in their estimation was based. Using this value, the estimates of experts after a period of one to six months compared to evaluate success. "Median" is a number that is surrounded by the size of a structured set of assumptions and "Interval Estimates" indicates the minimum and maximum estimate file. Columns "Increase / decrease" indicate the number of experts assume that the index in the period considered, given the current value rises or falls.
Note: Estimates are non-binding form of views with regard to the outlook for the next one month and a half year. The fact, however, may substantially differ from the estimates of experts. Experts even Kurzy.cz assume no responsibility for these differences.

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