Saxo Bank (Saxo Bank)
Commodities  |  December 13, 2010 11:02:13

Sell ??bonds to invest in commodities gives another dimension


Commodity markets showed the first week of December and strong growth forecasts for 2011 indicate that this year will be positive for commodity sector. The gold we have seen new highs and WTI crude oil for the first time after 26 months, looked over USD 90 per barrel.

Best performance for the past two weeks demonstrated cocoa, mainly due to the uncertainty stemming from the recent elections in Côte d'Ivoire, also due to fears of copper supply shortage in 2011, combined with an indication of a copper ETF and natural gas, which helped to seasonal cold weather. WTI Crude oil followed   Last week the European Brent crude oil above $ 90. Reached a peak price of $ 90.76, after investors chose profits and oil fell by three percent. This growth meant achieving a 50 percent return on sales levels, when oil fell from 147.27 to 33.20. Interestingly, this decline occurred during the 97 days, and return in half so far lasted 663 days.

10-day rally came just when the dollar strengthened and particularly strongly fasted and consumers in local currencies. The growth is now expected especially changes in market situation, demand has increased the most in 30 years. This growth in demand, which was particularly evident in the last quarter, caused the first time in two years got spot price is above the forward price.

Less liquidity before the end of the year could result in higher volatility due to reassessment of positions. OPEC, which provides 40% of the world's oil, the 11th meeting December has not changed as expected limits of mining. And even though the oil price attacked the upper part of his comfort zone. May adversely affect the price of oil an effort to alleviate inflation and China also still unresolved situation regarding the debt problems of some European countries. Can have a positive impact reports on North Korea and the predictions of cold weather.  

Gold and silver followed by oil and reached new highs this year, then investors choose gold and profits fell by four percent and nine silver. Gold reached new highs and silver was only $ 5 from a 35 dollar limit in 1980 when the Hunt brothers tried to manipulate the market.

Silver was last Monday against gold is relatively strongest in the last three years. In August, the price per ounce of gold to 68 times the current price of silver dropped to 48 times. If this nadvýkonnost silver will continue, the question is because the current development favors gold. It is quite common that during the growth of silver outperforms gold and vice versa, in the correction of losing more.

Copper is another commodity that has recorded a new high. This time it was due to fears that global supply is not enough in the ongoing recovery in demand to keep pace. U.S. demand for copper in the third quarter of 2010 reached the maximum two-year, coincidentally at a time when a lot of physical copper moved into the newly opened ETF fund.

Last week the price of wheat has shown how it can respond to fluctuations in weather, allowing a reduction in Australia threatens the quality of grain. Last week, investors deserved attention thanks to corn growing expectations of a decrease in production.Price correction from November and rose dramatically to blame is a strong demand from ethanol producers and forecasts that U.S. stocks will fall to 15-year lows. In the market for corn are among the other agricultural commodities are still the largest speculative long positions and thus can be expected at the end of correction.

Ole S Hansen, Senior Manager, Saxo Bank

 Globální online investiční banka

Saxo Bank je globální investiční banka specializující se na online obchodování a investice na mezinárodních finančních trzích. Saxo Bank umožňuje soukromým investorům a institucionálním klientům obchodovat s FX, CFD, cennými papíry, futures, opcemi a dalšími deriváty a poskytuje i profesionální správu portfolia a fondů díky svým online obchodním platformám oceněným řadou různých ocenění.

Více informací na: www.saxobank.cz

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