Commerzbank (Commerzbank)
World markets  |  December 17, 2010 13:23:56

Weekly 50 weeks: Markets discarded in neutral before the end of the year. Waiting for the Fed and the summit.


This week was the last full trading week of this year and festive activity begins to be felt. In Europe, standing at attention ZEW index of economic expectations in Germany, which is based on a survey of financial analysts, and scored for the second month in a row increase.The German Ifo business confidence index fell solidly. In the United States was recorded in November retail sales growth (+0.8%). Value clearly showed that private consumption rose. Also, inflation in the U.S. economy fell in line with expectations. Investors too alarmed China's rise in inflation and hence the continued speculation on the growth rates in China, whose increase is probably only a matter of time. China's central bank has again raised reserve requirements.

Stock Exchange is slowly but surely discarded in neutral before the end of the year. Better use of moments in some profit taking by investors, as markets for this year probably exhausted its potential. On the other hand, weaker trading days used to purchase any other prospective titles. The result is negligible movement of stock indices.

President Obama's ongoing effort to extend the tax relief can not sleep fixed income market. Revenue growth in U.S. government bonds indicates concerns about the long-term evolution of U.S. fiscal policy.

Of course not escaped the attention of the monetary meeting of the U.S. central bank. The Fed statement is much different from the previous meeting in November. Members of the Monetary Committee were (despite the improving economic tone of most recent messages) a bit cautious in the conclusions. In a statement chose more cautious stance on the acknowledgment that the economic activity and improve the outlook. The explanation may be that the Fed does not want to draw premature conclusions from the improving economic data until it is confident that these numbers represent something more permanent. Concerns about the fate of the debt of the euro area during the week of known words especially after Moody's threatened to reduce rating spiced with Spain and the voltage before an important summit of the European Union, which began on Thursday in Brussels.The first day of negotiations at the summit was only expected an agreement on a permanent rescue mechanism, which will enter into force from 2013. Virtually elements were confirmed by the mechanism proposed by the Ministry of Finance two weeks ago. In connection with the Treaty on the EU accompanied by two sentences.

The euro managed to initially recover strongly from the initial value of 1.32 to 1.35 against the U.S. dollar. Currency pair has received support from two sides. First part of the market speculated that the Fed may announce an increase in quantitative easing program and the expectation that representatives of governments and the EU take detailed decisions about the future crisis mechanism.Gradually, however, showed that these assumptions are not met and enjoyed a strengthening dollar crust. After the "news" from Moody's and tear gas during demonstrations against the reforms of the labor market in Athens euro weakened against the dollar back to the level of 1.33. The risk premium bonds periphery of the euro area, although not increase further, however, probably due to increased intervention by the ECB.

Despite the continuing positive sentiment in the market prices of commodities during the week shift due up. Players on the oil market monitor data on Chinese demand for oil, but due to the cautious economic outlook, the Fed and the rising dollar oil narrow band around $ 88 left.Gold failed to keep the key hodnout $ 1400. Prices of industrial metals retreated slightly, but the price of copper reached a new historic high in 9250 dollars per tonne.

Michal Dolezal, an analyst at Commerzbank

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