World markets  |  February 02, 2012 17:41:24

January was a success / BIG EXPERT - Foreign Markets: Week 30 First 2012


January in the stock market really successful. Measured index of leading European shares FTSEurofirst 300 showed an average European shares rise by 10%. The situation overseas has evolved positively, the index managed to erase even the DJ drops all of last year and traded the most since May 2008, so it looks like we really did not have any crisis. But most investors still raises the question whether this growth will last or whether it is just a classic effect in January and short oblivion of all European problems that plagued the markets the last few months. So far it seems that no one not even mind the ever-growing income for Portuguese bonds, which this week soared at auction 2letých to 21%. After all, this is obviously the number that each person logically uvažujícímu tell that this country can repay the debt only by a miracle.And so I think that in Portugal, sooner or later the same scenario as in Greece, where part of the debt to the country "voluntarily" waived. However, it dispenses with it without panic in the markets. Portugal is Europe's leading economy and the restructuring of its debt has put the euro area. In addition, we have an institution that has unlimited resources and can always save Europe. Yes, we are talking about the ECB to be independent and not to save the banks or the government, but practice is another. In particular, the fact that the ECB injected during 5 months, over 500 billion to states and banks led to a significant calming the markets and the rescue of Europe as we know it.

Personally I am inclined to think that in the coming days or weeks waiting for a market correction, as investors' appetite to buy stocks after strong upswings slowly begins to fade. However, in the long run, I think that the greatest declines in the shares associated with the debt crisis have been behind at the end of this year will have the most equity markets earned decent profits.

Paul Skořepa, Lutherus

Opinions of experts on future developments in selected foreign markets monitored by indices and comparison with the Czech capital market (PX) over one month and a half years, from 30 a week First The 2012th


Experts estimate for the period of 1 month

Pointer
Hodn.
27th First
Diameter
Median
Change
in%
Interval
Growth
Decrease
PX
967.80
958.83
956
ˇ -0.93
920 to 996
2
4
Dow Jones (U.S.)
12 660,46
12 587,67
12 542
ˇ -0.57
12 500 - 12 843
A
5
NASDAQ (U.S.)
2 816,55
2 781,33
2796
ˇ -1.25
2700 - 2876
A
5
FTSE 100 (VB)
5 733,50
5 678,33
5700
ˇ -0.96
5420 - 5847
A
5
DAX (Germany)
6 511,98
6 488,33
6504
ˇ -0.36
6340 - 6682
3
3
Nikkei 225 (JPN)
8 841,22
8 919,50
8767
^ 0.89
8600 - 9800
2
4


Experts estimate for the period of 6 months

Pointer
Hodn.
27th First
Diameter
Median
Change
in%
Interval
Growth
Decrease
PX
967.80
988.83
986
^ 2.17
955 to 1 020
5
A
Dow Jones (U.S.)
12 660,46
12 890,00
12 867
^ 1.81
12 610 - 13 200
5
A
NASDAQ (U.S.)
2 816,55
2 901,33
2927
^ 3.01
2780 - 2950
5
A
FTSE 100 (VB)
5 733,50
5 873,33
5884
^ 2.44
5710 - 5963
5
A
DAX (Germany)
6 511,98
6 676,83
6732
^ 2.53
6 417 - 6 900
4
2
Nikkei 225 (JPN)
8 841,22
9 001,50
9034
^ 1.81
8750 - 9150
5
A

Comparison:

Look also to the estimates made ??last and before last week.
All estimates can be seen in the section Expert BIG .

Reviews carried out in this week:

  • Ondrej Moravanský - Cyrrus
  • Libor Bucek, John Mach, Milan Nedbálek - FINANCE Zlin
  • Patrick Hudec - Generali PPF Asset Management, a fund manager společnost
  • Charles handbag, Miroslav Hlavoň - CAPITAL GRANT
  • James Mensik, Paul Skořepa - LUTHERUS
  • Jaroslav Brychta - X-Trade Brokers

The tables contain a summary of estimates of experts in the list. The column "Actual value" the value of the observed indices (Friday's closing value), from which experts in their estimation was based. Using this value, the estimates of experts after a period of one to six months compared to evaluate success. "Median" is a number that is surrounded by the size of a structured set of assumptions and "Interval Estimates" indicates the minimum and maximum estimate file. Columns "Increase / decrease" indicate the number of experts assume that the index in the period considered, given the current value rises or falls.
Note: Estimates are non-binding form of views with regard to the outlook for the next one month and a half year. The fact, however, may substantially differ from the estimates of experts. Experts even Kurzy.cz assume no responsibility for these differences.

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