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World markets  |  9.2.2012 14:13:28

Pulling liquidity / BIG EXPERT - foreign markets: from the 6th week Second 2012


The last week is still marked by continued optimism and additional liquidity into the European banking system, the ECB injected at the beginning of December, in the three-year refinancing operations (LTROs) to avert the impending crisis, liquidity freeze in the sector with all its negative consequences. No wonder that the best titles are ranked above the bank name. Excess capital on pushing asset prices up, although a week ago it had seemed that at least a technical correction is a matter of the order of most days. U.S. stocks rose for the fifth week in a row, that is, without a break since the beginning of the year, all supported by good data from the labor market and the German DAX even scored seven positive mezitýdenní změnu.A despite the fact that the field of EMU fiscal discipline rules, sanctions and Greek debt write-off for any real progress there.Which in turn means that Greece still does not resolve the issue of repayment of about 14 billion as at 20 of March.

Overseas on the Continent is in full swing earnings season. Although expectations were not too high this time what the extent of positive surprise to long-term average, the current process rather mild disappointment. It should be noted however, that both profits and sales continue to rise, even kdyžvýhledy companies for 2012 remain generally very cautious.

The risk premium remains at historically above-average levels and stock prices remain despite the current growth is still depressed below a nonzero probability of extreme negative scenarios, the impact on assets, however, if implemented, was extremelydestruktivní.Zraky investors in February will be directed to the last trading session when it is on the agenda for the second round three LTROs. Indications suggest that the interest of banks in this very inexpensive source of financing long should greatly overcome the December level of almost 500 billion.

Patrick Hudec, Generali PPF Asset Management,
fund managers společnost

Opinions of experts on future developments in selected foreign markets monitored by indices and comparison with the Czech capital market (PX) over one month and a half years, a week from 6 Second The 2012th


Experts estimate for the period of 1 month

Pointer
Hodn.
Third Second
Diameter
Median
Change
in%
Interval
Growth
Decrease
PX
1 009,80
1 002,83
1000
ˇ -0.69
985 to 1 032
2
4
Dow Jones (U.S.)
12 862,23
12 779,33
12 750
ˇ -0.64
12 570 - 13 006
2
4
NASDAQ (U.S.)
2 905,66
2 874,17
2875
ˇ -1.08
2820 - 2933
A
5
FTSE 100 (VB)
5 901,10
5 857,17
5840
ˇ -0.74
5793 - 5960
A
5
DAX (Germany)
6 766,67
6 743,50
6760
ˇ -0.34
6600 - 6874
3
3
Nikkei 225 (JPN)
8 831,93
8 896,33
8870
^ 0.73
8783 - 9105
3
3


Experts estimate for the period of 6 months

Pointer
Hodn.
Third Second
Diameter
Median
Change
in%
Interval
Growth
Decrease
PX
1 009,80
1 019,50
1028
^ 0.96
980 to 1 052
4
2
Dow Jones (U.S.)
12 862,23
12 973,50
13 050
^ 0.87
12 600 - 13 264
4
2
NASDAQ (U.S.)
2 905,66
2 972,67
2983
^ 2.31
2870 - 3050
4
2
FTSE 100 (VB)
5 901,10
5 904,67
5925
^ 0.06
5650 - 6078
3
3
DAX (Germany)
6 766,67
6 890,50
6917
^ 1.83
6620 - 7180
4
2
Nikkei 225 (JPN)
8 831,93
9 089,67
9117
^ 2.92
8820 - 9285
5
A

Comparison:

Look also to the estimates made ??last and before last week.
All estimates can be seen in the section Expert BIG .

Reviews carried out in this week:

  • Ondrej Moravanský - Cyrrus
  • Libor Bucek, John Mach, Milan Nedbálek - FINANCE Zlin
  • Patrick Hudec - Generali PPF Asset Management, a fund manager společnost
  • Charles handbag, Miroslav Hlavoň - CAPITAL GRANT
  • James Mensik, Paul Skořepa - LUTHERUS
  • Jaroslav Brychta - X-Trade Brokers

The tables contain a summary of estimates of experts in the list. The column "Actual value" the value of the observed indices (Friday's closing value), from which experts in their estimation was based. Using this value, the estimates of experts after a period of one to six months compared to evaluate success. "Median" is a number that is surrounded by the size of a structured set of assumptions and "Interval Estimates" indicates the minimum and maximum estimate file. Columns "Increase / decrease" indicate the number of experts assume that the index in the period considered, given the current value rises or falls.
Note: Estimates are non-binding form of views with regard to the outlook for the next one month and a half year. The fact, however, may substantially differ from the estimates of experts. Experts even Kurzy.cz assume no responsibility for these differences.

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