World markets  |  February 16, 2012 18:02:50

Rating downgrades of European countries and the Greek adventure / BIG EXPERT - foreign markets: from the 13th week Second 2012


Greek-ending adventure, lower ratings of European countries and a decline in GDP in the euro area's price-fixing were the main events of this week. First, the Greek parliament on Sunday approved the fiscal measures required to receive financial assistance amounting to 130 billion EUR.Díky this Agreement enter into new markets week with cautious optimism. However, another important condition for assistance to voluntary participation in the Greek debt write-off private investors.

The good mood somewhat spoiled markets, Moody's, which went on during the week to reduce the ratings of several European countries, and subsequently warned that it is considering a revision of the rating of seventeen banks of global importance for the financial system.Overall rating reduction will cover 114 and the outlook for banks, while the reduction in the number of cases up to three stops.

The macroeconomic data were then the most interesting data on the growth (or decline) in the euro area GDP. According to the first estimate of euro area GDP declined in the last quarter by 0.3% QoQ, which is likely eurozone fell into recession. From the perspective of the country turned out badly especially Holland and Italy. A special chapter is Greece, which fell by 5%. Too well, however, not result in the Czech economy, where GDP estimate decreased by 0.3% q / q, when the market's expected stagnation.

Despite the sentiment worsened success took place on Thursday the Spanish government bonds, which brought into the state treasury 4.07 billion euros, which is even slightly above the maximum planned capacity of 4 billion euros.Bonds sold without a problem and France failed to materialize and so worried that the market could reduce interest in the bonds of the euro area with regard to the rescue of Greece and uncertain wave reduction ratings.

Crown, which in the middle of last week was the strongest in the last three months, he grew up to 24.70 CZK / EUR during this week weakened when the loss was primarily impaired mood stemming from a complicated situation with regard to Greece. Currently, the domestic currency at a price around 25.20 per euro.

On the bond market, then most of the week, virtually nothing happened, trading activity was minimal and the yield curve remained broadly unchanged. Earlier in the week published the Treasury bond issuance calendar for March, which attracted mainly bonds with long maturities (2036).On Thursday, the peace was interrupted and there was a pronounced weakening of domestic bonds. The decrease except worse sentiment in the markets also contributed to unexpectedly high domestic inflation. This according to figures released today, in January 2012 increased by 3.5% when the market was waiting only grow at 3.2%.

Further development of capital markets will depend mainly on how to resolve the debt crisis in the eurozone.

Martin Peck, Generali PPF Asset Management,
fund managers společnost

Opinions of experts on future developments in selected foreign markets monitored by indices and comparison with the Czech capital market (PX) over one month and a half years, from 13 a week Second The 2012th


Experts estimate for the period of 1 month

Pointer
Hodn.
Third Second
Diameter
Median
Change
in%
Interval
Growth
Decrease
PX
990.80
998.40
1000
^ 0.77
980 to 1 030
3
2
Dow Jones (U.S.)
12 801,23
12 803,40
12 767
^ 0.02
12 650 - 13 000
2
3
NASDAQ (U.S.)
2 903,88
2 899,40
2880
ˇ -0.15
2850 - 2980
2
3
FTSE 100 (VB)
5 852,40
5 866,00
5810
^ 0.23
5790 - 6030
2
3
DAX (Germany)
6 692,96
6 748,60
6683
^ 0.83
6550 - 7100
2
3
Nikkei 225 (JPN)
8 947,17
9 050,00
9000
^ 1.15
8900 - 9400
3
2


Experts estimate for the period of 6 months

Pointer
Hodn.
Third Second
Diameter
Median
Change
in%
Interval
Growth
Decrease
PX
990.80
1 031,00
1030
^ 4.06
985 to 1 060
4
A
Dow Jones (U.S.)
12 801,23
13 118,00
13 200
^ 2.48
12 790 - 13 350
4
A
NASDAQ (U.S.)
2 903,88
3 016,40
3042
^ 3.88
2890 - 3090
4
A
FTSE 100 (VB)
5 852,40
6 046,60
6100
^ 3.32
5850 - 6133
4
A
DAX (Germany)
6 692,96
6 938,60
7000
^ 3.67
6660 - 7100
4
A
Nikkei 225 (JPN)
8 947,17
9 236,00
9300
^ 3.23
8880 - 9450
4
A

Reviews carried out in this week:

  • Ondrej Moravanský - Cyrrus
  • Libor Bucek, John Mach, Milan Nedbálek - FINANCE Zlin
  • Patrick Hudec - Generali PPF Asset Management, a fund manager společnost
  • Charles handbag, Miroslav Hlavoň - CAPITAL GRANT
  • James Mensik, Paul Skořepa - LUTHERUS

The tables contain a summary of estimates of experts in the list. The column "Actual value" the value of the observed indices (Friday's closing value), from which experts in their estimation was based. Using this value, the estimates of experts after a period of one to six months compared to evaluate success."Median" is a number that is surrounded by the size of a structured set of assumptions and "Interval Estimates" indicates the minimum and maximum estimate file. Columns "Increase / decrease" indicate the number of experts assume that the index in the period considered, given the current value rises or falls.
Note: Estimates are non-binding form of views with regard to the outlook for the next one month and a half year. The fact, however, may substantially differ from the estimates of experts. Experts even Kurzy.cz assume no responsibility for these differences.

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