World markets  |  February 23, 2012 16:48:18

Liquidity brought euphoria, but not for long / BIG EXPERT - foreign markets: from the 20th week Second 2012


After almost two months of continuous growth, the American stock index S & P 500 jumped to a 360B., Where he moved in last half of 2011, when financial markets are held above the water a second round of quantitative easing in the U.S.. It ended in July and started the sale of shares to a few weeks of August have lost almost 20% of its value.

Since then, much has changed. Instead the Fed began markets support the European Central Bank, which with the advent of a new chief as president started quantitative easing, the European way. The balance of the half year increased by 40% (750 billion euros) and its further growth we expect in the next week, when the ECB starts the second giant tender, with the help should the European banking sector to pump fresh three-year liquidity. The current euphoria in markets is therefore understandable.The ECB, like a giant vacuum cleaner, sucking off the market for junk debt short hundreds of billions of euros, reduced short-term rates and significantly easier for European governments of their other debt. Countries thanks to her no problems with the sale of new debt, bond yields are falling and the mood in the markets is improving.

Unfortunately, as already several times in the past, markets are likely to undergo euphoria that followed always after the central bank began to flood liquidity. This time we are witnessing yet global monetary expansion, which together with the ECB also made the Bank of England and Bank of Japan. How long does a good mood in the markets last? Weeks? Months? Hard to say.But one can hardly imagine that the current growth carefree anything to do with the real solution of accumulated problems. Markets simply getting used to even cheaper money, the cheaper cost, after all, at the very beginning of the financial and debt crisis.

Jaroslav Brychta, X-Trade Brokers

Opinions of experts on future developments in selected foreign markets monitored by indices and comparison with the Czech capital market (PX) over one month and a half years, from 20 a week Second The 2012th


Experts estimate for the period of 1 month

Pointer
Hodn.
17th Second
Diameter
Median
Change
in%
Interval
Growth
Decrease
PX
1 015,40
999.17
998
ˇ -1.60
980 to 1 025
A
5
Dow Jones (U.S.)
12 949,87
12 852,33
12 825
ˇ-0.75
12 700 - 13 094
A
5
NASDAQ (U.S.)
2 951,78
2 912,00
2915
ˇ -1.35
2850 - 2977
A
5
FTSE 100 (VB)
5 905,10
5 854,00
5825
ˇ -0.86
5780 - 5994
A
5
DAX (Germany)
6 848,03
6 831,83
6805
ˇ -0.24
6700 - 6981
2
4
Nikkei 225 (JPN)
9 384,17
9 219,83
9260
ˇ -1.75
8700 - 9649
2
4


Experts estimate for the period of 6 months

Pointer
Hodn.
17th Second
Diameter
Median
Change
in%
Interval
Growth
Decrease
PX
1 015,40
1 043,33
1048
^ 2.75
1005 - 1070
5
A
Dow Jones (U.S.)
12 949,87
13 168,83
13 250
1.69
12 910 - 13 353
5
A
NASDAQ (U.S.)
2 951,78
3 032,67
3043
^ 2.74
2930 - 3080
5
A
FTSE 100 (VB)
5 905,10
6 072,17
6082
^ 2.83
5 870 - 6 200
5
A
DAX (Germany)
6 848,03
7 038,17
7035
v2, 78
6760 - 7 300
5
A
Nikkei 225 (JPN)
9 384,17
9 517,50
9550
^ 1.42
9120 - 9840
4
2

Comparison:

Look also to the estimates made ??lastand before last week.
All estimates can be seen in the section Expert BIG .


Reviews carried out in this week:

  • Ondrej Moravanský - Cyrrus
  • Libor Bucek, John Mach, Milan Nedbálek - FINANCE Zlin
  • Patrick Hudec - Generali PPF Asset Management, a fund manager společnost
  • Charles handbag, Miroslav Hlavoň - CAPITAL GRANT
  • James Mensik, Paul Skořepa - LUTHERUS
  • Jaroslav Brychta - X-Trade Brokers


The tables contain a summary of estimates of experts in the list. The column "Actual value" the value of the observed indices (Friday's closing value), from which experts in their estimation was based. Using this value, the estimates of experts after a period of one to six months compared to evaluate success. "Median" is a number that is surrounded by the size of a structured set of assumptions and "Interval Estimates" indicates the minimum and maximum estimate file. Columns "Increase / decrease" indicate the number of experts assume that the index in the period considered, given the current value rises or falls.
Note: Estimates are non-binding form of views with regard to the outlook for the next one month and a half year. The fact, however, may substantially differ from the estimates of experts. Experts even Kurzy.czassume no responsibility for these differences.

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