Czech markets  |  23.2.2012 18:04:13

Where is Greek dog buried? / BIG EXPERT - shares: a week from 20 Second 2012


The last agreement is another Greek libation European indecision. Germany must clarify whether he wants to continue to help and solidarity, or punish. The last package is not doing well and neither postponing painful decisions for the future.

Even if all goes well, Greece will be the end of the decade with the highest farm debt in the euro area GDP to 121%. This is a very weak result that the Greeks managed to return to the market. Investors also tend to be stricter on the countries that pass through bankruptcy (though controlled) and demand for them greater security. Greeks and in the optimistic case in 2020, not without kapaček from Brussels and the IMF.

Far more likely is a less optimistic scenario, in which Greece under the weight of current savings will fall into a deeper recession and record significant drop in tax revenues (which indeed is confirmed by the January data and nearly 20 percent decline in VAT). Negative realistic scenario foresees that the Greeks in 2020 had 160% debt to GDP (near today's levels) and needed to borrow up to 245 billion euros to normal operation.

It seems that the only reason why the eurozone today with Greece still plays this game is the fear of the complete bankruptcy of Greece and its exit from the euro area. This is wrong both for Greece and the euro area. Monetary union, says Martin Wolf of The Financial Times, can hardly hold together just long out of fear that would break all caused great damage.Strong three-áčkové euro area countries - Germany, Netherlands, Finland - must decide whether they want to actually help Greece to stand up on their feet and remain in a monetary union.

If so, the rescue plan must have a different structure, the euro area it will cost more money and above all patience. Germany et al. must get used to the idea of ??politically long-term Marshall Plan for the euro area peripherals that will help them catch up with the hard core. If something can not or do not want is in place to build against Greece and possibly Portugal embankment. One that would allow complete bankruptcy, the eventual exit from the euro area financial contagion and avoid the rest of the peripheral economies. Val can be protective in the final many-fold more expensive than the Marshall Plan, but it sells better impatient voters.The decision for one of two possible routes, however, requires courage, which now meets European peaks.

Jan Bures, PSB

Expert opinions on the future development of selected stocks in the Czech capital market in the next month and a half years, from 20 a week Second The 2012th


The estimate for the period from 20 Second to 19 Third 2012 (1 month)

Name
Attractiveness
Price
(Monday)
Definitely
buy
Buy
No
action
Sell
Definitely
sell
ERSTE BANK GROUP
^ 25
478.1
A
2
2
A
0
VIG
^ 17
862
A
A
3
A
0
NWR
^ 8
156.8
0
2
3
A
0
CETV
^ 8
164
A
A
3
0
A
COMMERCIAL BANK
^ 8
3605
0
A
5
0
0
TELEFÓNICA O2 CR
^ 8
393
0
2
3
A
0
UNIPETROL
^ 8
168.1
A
0
4
A
0
PEGAS NONWOVENS
0
457.9
0
A
4
A
0
PHILIP MORRIS CR
0
11 608
0
2
3
0
A
CEZ
ˇ -17
837
0
0
4
2
0


The estimate for the period from 20 Second to 20 8th 2012 (6 months)

Name
Attractiveness
Price
(Monday)
Definitely
buy
Buy
No
action
Sell
Definitely
sell
NWR
^ ^ 67
156.8
3
2
A
0
0
ERSTE BANK GROUP
^ ^ 50
478.1
0
6
0
0
0
PEGAS NONWOVENS
^ 42
457.9
A
3
2
0
0
VIG
^ 33
862
0
4
2
0
0
CETV
^ 33
164
2
2
A
0
A
COMMERCIAL BANK
^ 17
3605
0
3
2
A
0
CEZ
^ 8
837
0
2
3
A
0
TELEFÓNICA O2 CR
0
393
0
2
2
2
0
UNIPETROL
0
168.1
0
2
2
2
0
PHILIP MORRIS CR
ˇ -25
11 608
0
2
A
A
2

Reviews carried out in this week:

  • Michal Chrvala - Active Capital
  • Libor Bucek, John Mach, Milan Nedbálek - FINANCE Zlin
  • Patrick Hudec - Generali PPF Asset Management, a fund manager společnost
  • Charles handbag, Miroslav Hlavoň - CAPITAL GRANT
  • Premysl Nevlud - LUTHERUS
  • Dusan Reactive - UniCredit Bank Czech Republic

Statistics deals with the ten most liquid stocks traded on the PSE. The tables contain a summary of estimates of experts listed. The column "Price", says Monday's rate of selected titles from which experts in their estimation was based. With this value are estimates after a period of one to six months compared to evaluate success.The column "attractiveness" the weighted average number of different views and can take values ??from -100 to +100. Number of views "Sell", "Buy," etc. is published in other columns.
Note: Assessment takes the form of non-binding opinion, whether a security should be to buy or sell in anticipation of developments in the next one month and a half year. The fact, however, may substantially differ from the estimates of experts. Experts even Kurzy.cz assume no responsibility for these differences.

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