Mediafax (Mediafax)
Macroeconomics  |  July 10, 2012 09:45:06

CBA: Czech GDP this year will fall by 0.6%


PRAGUE (MEDIAFAX) - The Czech economy this year will fall slightly (-0.6%) due to the weakening of household consumption that is responsible for inflation, decline in real incomes and relatively high unemployment. On Tuesday about through its current forecasts informed the Czech Banking Association (CBA).

"A key role in the development of the economy plays a weaker domestic demand, which currently can not compensate for the positive contribution of exports. Probably plays a role as a general negative mood in society, "said CSOB analyst Petr Dufek, one of the authors forecast.

CBA its new forecast, revise its previous estimate, that allowed for the stagnation of the domestic economy in 2012. Next year, analysts expect the seven Czech banks, who are involved in creating the forecast, a slight growth of Czech GDP by one percent.

"The prognosis CBA is built on the premise that there is no escalation of problems in the eurozone or the EU. The opposite scenario would bring difficult to quantify and potentially crucial short-term negative consequences for the Czech economy, "said a member of the Scientific Council CBA Pavel Sobisek, an analyst at UniCredit Bank.

A slight decrease (-0.5%) is also expected for investments, even though business investment by members of the CBA, there are signs of positive development. The only factor that inhibits economic downturn, exports remain, but even here the CBA allows for a slight weakening of the influence of the overall economic situation in the country's major trading partners of the CR. "For the euro area is predicted decline in real GDP of 0.5 percent. Bank loans to keep this as positive momentum projections, will grow by more than three percent, the same process is expected in 2013, "said Sobisek.

Risks are forecast in particular the situation in the euro area, respectively in the EU, as well as payment of EU subsidies from the European Commission, which threatens the financial losses in the hundreds to tens of billions of crowns. Risk forecasts is also unclear prospect of global growth, especially in China or India.

According to recent estimates, the Czech National Bank (CNB) published the third May, the Czech economy will stagnate due to a considerable slowdown in external demand and the ongoing fiscal consolidation. Next year, gross domestic product (GDP) will grow by 1.9 percent in connection with the recovery in external demand. Further development of the Czech GDP estimate published CNB second August.

Ministry of Finance (MF) in its latest forecast of 12 April confirmed its January estimates, according to which the Czech economy this year, slightly better off by 0.2 percent.Ministry of Finance forecast but noted that it is possible further escalation of problems in the euro area and therefore no possibility of passing on any negative external shocks to the Czech economy. Current forecasts of the Ministry of Finance will be published in late July.

CBA was founded in 1990 and is a voluntary association of legal entities doing business in finance. Currently comprises 38 members. Association's role is primarily to represent and promote the common interests of its members, present role and banking interests to the public and participate in the standardization of practices in banking.

Jan Soukup, soukupj@mediafax.cz

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