World markets  |  August 02, 2012 17:21:56

The future of the euro area in the hands of the ECB / BIG EXPERT - Foreign Markets: Week 30 7th 2012


The last week in the markets was marked by the ECB chief Mario Draghi. The statement said the biggest solution to the escalating debt crisis. It seems that he and representatives of the ECB begins to realize that other than her critical interventions, crisis can not be stopped. Otherwise you can not even explain the statement that "within our mandate, the ECB is prepared to do anything to defend the euro. And believe me, it will really be enough." This statement Draghi said power markets, but also put on a braided whip. At Thursday's meeting of the ECB has no room for disappointment. Markets expect that there will be vigorous action. Anything half a, incomplete or lame can inflict a hard blow to the credibility of the ECB.

Variant with what the ECB may come, is more. The most likely is that this institution will buy bonds on the secondary market to reduce the income of vulnerable countries. But this alone will not suffice to meet expectations. ECB must add other measures such as further reduction in rates, the supply of liquidity operation LTROs 3, or the best equivalent of the U.S. quantitative easing. The question remains whether Draghi had before his expression enough time (during holidays) to negotiate political support for any major decision at Thursday's meeting. In the next few weeks could provide support to the markets for banking license ESM fund, but which has yet emerged and thus acute uncertainty in the markets can not be mitigated. In addition to this (yet) adamantly opposed German politicians, to which markets react (what else) negatively.

Markets did not lend a hand in the middle of Fed chief Ben Bernanke. Managed by the U.S. central bank merely repeated statements from the previous meeting that the economy is ready to help if her condition improves. In markets dominated by the expectation that the right moment for the Fed no longer occurs at the next meeting in mid-September.

Tomáš Menčík, Cyrrus

Opinions of experts on future developments in selected foreign markets monitored by indices and comparison with the Czech capital market (PX) over one month and a half years, from 30 a week 7th The 2012th


Experts estimate for the period of 1 month

Pointer
Hodn.
27th 7th
Diameter
Median
Change
in%
Interval
Growth
Decrease
PX
895.70
908.60
910
^ 1.44
878 to 960
3
2
Dow Jones (U.S.)
13 075,66
12 907,20
12 775
ˇ -1.29
12 711 - 13 200
2
3
NASDAQ (U.S.)
2 958,09
2 936,80
2900
ˇ -0.72
2861 - 3050
2
3
FTSE 100 (VB)
5 627,20
5 663,40
5690
^ 0.64
5500 - 5760
3
2
DAX (Germany)
6 689,40
6 661,60
6623
ˇ -0.42
6525 - 6800
2
3
Nikkei 225 (JPN)
8 566,64
8 616,80
8600
^ 0.59
8475 - 8800
3
2


Experts estimate for the period of 6 months

Pointer
Hodn.
27th 7th
Diameter
Median
Change
in%
Interval
Growth
Decrease
PX
895.70
953.60
930
^ 6.46
913 - 1 050
5
0
Dow Jones (U.S.)
13 075,66
13 286,00
13 300
^ 1.61
13 050 - 13 500
4
A
NASDAQ (U.S.)
2 958,09
3 067,60
3080
^ 3.70
2978 - 3110
5
0
FTSE 100 (VB)
5 627,20
5 873,20
5870
^ 4.37
5 750 - 6 000
5
0
DAX (Germany)
6 689,40
6 892,80
6920
^ 3.04
6700 - 7 000
5
0
Nikkei 225 (JPN)
8 566,64
8 979,20
8950
^ 4.82
8826 - 9150
5
0

Reviews carried out in this week:

  • Menčík Thomas, George SIMAR - Cyrrus
  • Libor Bucek, John Mach, Milan Nedbálek - FINANCE Zlin
  • Patrick Hudec - Generali PPF Asset Management, a fund manager společnost
  • Charles handbag, Miroslav Hlavoň - CAPITAL GRANT
  • Jaroslav Brychta - X-Trade Brokers

The tables contain a summary of estimates of experts in the list. The column "Actual value" the value of the observed indices (Friday's closing value), from which experts in their estimation was based. Using this value, the estimates of experts after a period of one to six months compared to evaluate success. "Median" is a number that is surrounded by the size of a structured set of assumptions and "Interval Estimates" indicates the minimum and maximum estimate file.Columns "Increase / decrease" indicate the number of experts assume that the index in the period considered, given the current value rises or falls.
Note: Estimates are non-binding form of views with regard to the outlook for the next one month and a half year. The fact, however, may substantially differ from the estimates of experts. Experts even Kurzy.cz assume no responsibility for these differences.

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Budoucnost eurozóny v rukou ECB / BIG EXPERT - zahraniční trhy: týden od 30. 7. 2012

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