Vladimír Urbánek (Kurzy.cz)
Macroeconomics  |  August 10, 2012 09:57:46

CNB's Inflation Report issued III/2012


§          Headline inflation at the end of this year and next year will fall to the objective of the CNB, then will move in 2013 due to tax changes slightly above the inflation target. At the beginning of 2014 will be reduced slightly below target  

§          Relevant inflation at the end of this year falls below the target until the end of 2014   remain in the bottom half of the tolerance band  

§          Czech economy this year will fall due to a considerable slowdown in external demand and subdued domestic demand overall. In the next year in connection with a gradual recovery in external demand Czech GDP increase slightly, but its rate of growth will be dampened by ongoing fiscal consolidation

§          The nominal exchange rate of the koruna against the euro will strengthen very gradually

§          Is consistent with the forecast decline in market interest rates in the next few quarters, and their growth until 2014

Board of the Czech National Bank at its meeting on 9 August 2012 approved this year's third report on inflation. This report is an essential part of communication with the public central banks in inflation targeting regime.The central part of the Inflation Report is a description of the quarterly macroeconomic forecast, the CNB. This is a key input for decisions on monetary policy. The purpose of the publication of the forecast and its assumptions is to make monetary policy as transparent as possible, comprehensible, predictable and therefore credible. Report submitted to the CNB's inflation twice a year for the Chamber of Deputies of the Czech Republic.

The forecast described in Section II of this report predicts that total inflation at the turn of this year and next year will drop to the target and CNB monetary policy inflation falls below target.In 2013, the headline inflation due to an increase in both VAT rates by 1 percentage point   move slightly above the inflation target. In the aftermath of the tax effect is then at the beginning of 2014 reduced slightly below target.   Monetary policy in inflation will be around after next year and the next be in the bottom half of the tolerance zone in connection with the unwinding of the current cost pressures subdued and overall economic activity.

A significant slowdown in external demand and subdued domestic demand overall with continued fiscal consolidation will result in a decline in this year's GDP by 0.9%. Will act only growth-net exports, other   Folders   demand   will   Economic activity slowed down. In the next

year has forecast expected in connection with a gradual recovery in external demand for renewed growth of GDP, but its pace in view of further consolidation measures will reach only 0.8%. The source while growth would be in addition to all other government consumption expenditure component. In the ongoing recovery in external demand and a less restrictive effect of fiscal policy, then GDP growth in 2014 will increase further to 2.5%.

The labor market is the development of economic activities reflected this year in a slight annual decline in total employment growth and unemployment rate.To rise again, albeit dull, the total return to employment at the end of 2013. About stagnant wage growth in business during the coming year and next reflect the attenuation of the Czech economy, to accelerate the pace of growth occurs in the year 2014 in relation to a stronger recovery in economic activity. In the non-wage sector will be in those years due to the ongoing fiscal consolidation around stagnate.   

The forecast expects a gradual strengthening of the nominal exchange rate of the koruna against the euro, which will contribute to growth in nominal net exports due to recovery of foreign demand and improved terms of trade. Is consistent with the forecast decline in market interest rates in the next few quarters and to the growth in 2014.

·                 The full text of Inflation Report (pdf)

·                Key macroeconomic indicators in xls format

·                 Tables and charts of Inflation Reports in xls format

·                 The current CNB forecast

Thomas Zimmermann

CNB Communications Department

Selected macroeconomic indicators

5pt double, padding-top: 0cm; mso-border-left-alt: 1.5pt double windowtext "vAlign = bottom width = 48 nowrap>

2013

25pt; BORDER-TOP: # 000000; BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1.5pt double, padding-top: 0cm; mso-border-left-alt: 1.5pt double windowtext; mso-border-top-alt: 1.5pt double windowtext " vAlign = bottom width = 180 nowrap>

%, Yoy., Really, sec. Adjusted

5pt; HEIGHT: 17.25pt; BORDER-TOP: # 000000; BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1.5pt double, padding-top: 0cm; mso-border-top-alt: 1.5pt double windowtext "vAlign = bottom width = 289 nowrap>

PRICES

5pt double, padding-top: 0cm; mso-border-left-alt: 1.5pt double windowtext; mso-border-top-alt: 1.5pt double windowtext "vAlign = bottom width = 48 nowrap>

2.3

5pt double, padding-top: 0cm; mso-border-left-alt: 1.5pt double windowtext; mso-border-top-alt: 1.5pt double windowtext "vAlign = bottom width = 48 nowrap>

1.5

25pt; BORDER-TOP: # 000000; BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1.5pt double, padding-top: 0cm; mso-border-left-alt: 1.5pt double windowtext; mso-border-top-alt: 1.5pt double windowtext " vAlign = bottom width = 180 nowrap>

%, Yoy., Nominally

5pt; HEIGHT: 17.25pt; BORDER-TOP: # 000000; BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1.5pt double, padding-top: 0cm; mso-border-top-alt: 1.5pt double windowtext "vAlign = bottom width = 289 nowrap>

Registered unemployment rate, total (MLSA)

5pt double, padding-top: 0cm; mso-border-left-alt: 1.5pt double windowtext; mso-border-top-alt: 1.5pt double windowtext "vAlign = bottom width = 48 nowrap>

8.6

5pt double, padding-top: 0cm; mso-border-left-alt: 1.5pt double windowtext; mso-border-top-alt: 1.5pt double windowtext "vAlign = bottom width = 48>

-126.2

25pt; BORDER-TOP: # 000000; BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1.5pt double, padding-top: 0cm; mso-border-left-alt: 1.5pt double windowtext; mso-border-top-alt: 1.5pt double windowtext " vAlign = bottom width = 180 nowrap>

%, Nominally

25pt; BORDER-TOP: # 000000; BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1.5pt double, padding-top: 0cm; mso-border-left-alt: 1.5pt double windowtext; mso-border-top-alt: 1.5pt double windowtext " vAlign = bottom width = 180 nowrap>

%, Nominally

5pt double, padding-top: 0cm; mso-border-left-alt: 1.5pt double windowtext; mso-border-top-alt: 1.5pt double windowtext "vAlign = bottom width = 180 nowrap>

5pt double, padding-top: 0cm; mso-border-left-alt: 1.5pt double windowtext; mso-border-top-alt: 1.5pt double windowtext "vAlign = bottom width = 48 nowrap>

215.0

5pt double, padding-top: 0cm; mso-border-left-alt: 1.5pt double windowtext; mso-border-top-alt: 1.5pt double windowtext "vAlign = bottom width = 48 nowrap>

-1.4

5pt double, padding-top: 0cm; mso-border-left-alt: 1.5pt double windowtext; mso-border-top-alt: 1.5pt double windowtext "vAlign = bottom width = 48>

19.9

5pt double, padding-top: 0cm; mso-border-left-alt: 1.5pt double windowtext; mso-border-top-alt: 1.5pt double windowtext "vAlign = bottom width = 180 nowrap>

diameter

5pt double, padding-top: 0cm; mso-border-left-alt: 1.5pt double windowtext; mso-border-top-alt: 1.5pt double windowtext "vAlign = bottom width = 180 nowrap>

5pt double, padding-top: 0cm; mso-border-left-alt: 1.5pt double windowtext; mso-border-top-alt: 1.5pt double windowtext "vAlign = bottom width = 48 nowrap>

0.4

 

 

2012

2014

GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT

 

 

 


Gross domestic product (GDP)

-0.9

0.8

2.5

 

 

 

Consumer prices

%, Yoy., Fourth quarter

3.0

1.6

Relevant inflation

%, Yoy., Fourth quarter

1.8

1.5

LABOUR MARKET

 

 

 

Average monthly wages in the surveyed organizations

2.7

2.6

3.1

%, Average

8.8

8.9

PUBLIC FINANCE

 

General government balance (ESA 95)

CZK billion, current prices

-94.2

-78.6

General government balance / GDP

-3.3

-2.4

-1.9

The public debt / GDP

43.9

45.0

45.0

EXTERNAL RELATIONS

 

 

 

The trade balance

CZK billion, current prices

159.9

190.0

Current account balance / GDP

%, Nominally

-2.1

-1.1

CZK / USD

diameter

20.2

19.8

CZK / EUR

25.3

25.1

24.9

INTEREST RATES

 

 

 

3M PRIBOR

%, Average

1.0

0.3

 

Notes to editors:

Czech National Bank is the central bank of the Czech Republic and the supervisor of the financial market. CNB's main objective is to maintain price stability.CNB determines monetary policy, issues banknotes and coins, circulation control, payment and clearing banks, supervises the banking sector, capital market, insurance, pension funds, credit unions, electronic money institutions, consumer protection and foreign exchange supervision. As the State Bank CNB maintains accounts and performs payments and other banking services for state and public sector. CNB is based in Prague, Plzen, Hradec Kralove, Brno, Ostrava, Czech Budejovice and Usti nad Labem.

Contact for media:

CNB's Communications Department, e-mail: media@cnb.cz

Was this article: 10 | 8 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0


Last news from the section Macroeconomics:

Čt 11:20  Eurozóna - PMI v listopadu nejvýše od února 2011 Vladimír Urbánek (Kurzy.cz)
Čt   8:53  Čtvrteční obchodní seance 14. 12. 2017 STOX.CZ (Grant Capital)
Čt   8:39  Koruně chybí jestřábí hlasy ČNB ČSOB-Dealing (ČSOB-Dealing)
St 22:01  Wall Street Closing Bell & výhled na 14. 12. 17 Grant Capital (Grant Capital)

Read also:

November 11, 2016ČNB: Zpráva o inflaci IV/2016 Jiřina Kavková (Kurzy.cz)

ČNB vydala Zprávu o inflaci III/2012

Diskuze a názory

Na dané téma nejsou žádné názory.


Zobrazit sloupec 
Moner | ISIN database | Weather forecast
Česká verze
Kurzy.cz - Akcie cz, kurzy měn, forex, zlato.
Favorite: Prague Stock Exchange Czech crown Czech economy Commodities Gold Trademarks Prague Weather

Copyright © 2000 - 2017

Kurzy.cz, spol. s r.o., AliaWeb, spol. s r.o.,

ISSN 1801-8688