Mediafax (Mediafax)
Macroeconomics  |  August 14, 2012 17:55:06

The Czech economy this year worse off by about one percent, analysts estimate


PRAGUE (MEDIAFAX) - According to estimates of analysts polled by the Agency unless otherwise indicated, the Czech economy will be worse off, after last year's growth of 1.7 percent, about one percent. From Tuesday's information, the Czech Statistical Office (CSO) shows that the Czech economy in the second quarter fell by 1.2 percent.

According to analyst group Citfin Tomas Volf is the main reason for today's GDP numbers decline in industrial production. "Today's results herald the numbers from the industry. In April, industrial production is increased, but the next two months the second quarter, the numbers are red," said Volf.

"The Czech economy is falling for four consecutive quarters and has a length of overcoming recession in late 2008 and 2009, which lasted three quarters," said chief economist at Patria Finance analyst David Marek.According to him, but then decline was much steeper during the recession when GDP fell by a total of 5.9 percent. "During the current recession, GDP fell by 1.2 percent, the upturn may come back later and probably not too significant.

The managing partner of PwC in the CR George Moser pointed out that the Czech economy is strongly linked to the German. "If our western neighbor in the second quarter throttled back, it had to occur at the Czech numbers," says Moser with the fact that this year it expects German GDP growth of 0.5 percent, which should help the Czech economy drastically impair their performance .

"Despite the bad results of GDP are largely determined by external circumstances, should be an impulse to the government in its economic policy response, and very consistently, in creating the conditions for industrial development.There are still many obstacles to be removed, "said Director of Economic Policy of the Union of Industry and Transport Boris Dlouhy.

According to GE Money Bank analyst Peter Gapka remains the only driver who deserves a pat on the back of foreign trade. "The surplus will be but probably made in the coming months rather weak imports than exports strong, and it is not the structure that we would like to see," said Gapko and added: "This year in the baseline scenario we assume an average decline of the economy at a half percent. According to today's estimate and development in the last few weeks, however, our forecast shifts to pesimističtějšímu scenario. "

Gross domestic product adjusted for price effects and seasonality in the second quarter fell by CSO estimate, based on partial statistical and administrative data sources, year on year and 1.2 percent QoQ compared to 0.2 percent.

The reasons for the negative development of annual GDP in the second quarter according to the CSO in comparison with the previous period are different. While in the first quarter, it contributed to a large extent prior frontloading of tobacco products (with an impact on the excise tax) and a decrease of value added in banking and insurance sectors, in the second quarter, ceased to be a source of increasing the volume of economic performance leading industries. The year on year, although slightly increased, the levels did not reach the first quarter.

(The report issued by the Agency unless otherwise indicated with audio commentary chief economist at Patria Finance David Mark)

Jan Soukup, soukupj@mediafax.cz

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