Forex Zone (Forex Zone)
Czech markets  |  August 23, 2012 10:38:32

Chinese vs reality. QE


HSBC yesterday published a flash PMI manufacturing index China. Data are not positive. Index came in August to its lowest level in nine months. The value of the index in August fell to 47.8 compared with July's 49.3. The index is slowly approached the levels of 2009. Pretty picture does nothing new export orders Acts which are the lowest since March 2009.

After the Chinese government for a long time "strangling" the economy, the past few months we observe the opposite effort that so far, according to available data, does not stimulate the Chinese economy to grow.

The above information is in contrast to developments in the U.S. equity indices and by extension other risk assets. This growth came yesterday "boost" after the publication of the minutes of the last meeting of the FOMC (the Fed committee that decides on interest rates in the U.S.). Current growth mainly attributed to the expectation that the FOMC at its September meeting, announces the next round of QE. Until then, do not expect a dramatic move markets. But it is possible that the U.S. stock indexes create new high.

From our perspective, the key decision on further Fed QE. If you notify him in September with indices near annual highs come further significant strengthening. If QE notifies expect a lot of long traders who already banking on QE announcement, leaves the market. This could return attention to the global economic slowdown and increased wave run sales.

As regards developments in the monitored pair EUR / USD, so that today most part of the consolidated resistance around 1.2500 and support around 1.2435. On both levels we announced. Following the publication of the registration FOMC market surpassed the level of 1.2500 and made ??a high near resistance around 1.2540, to which we announced on Monday .

Currently the pair EUR / USD traded at 1.2557 price. Clearly dominates the market uptrend. A reasonable strategy is to buy at lower prices to important support levels. The major supports of the current market price we perceive around 1.2510 and about 1.2465 and 1.2400.

Since we have two consecutive days have witnessed a large daily price range, nowadays expect a day consolidated nature. The planned publication macro data could now significant movement to occur around 10:00, 14:30 and 16:00.

But we do not forget about the long-term downtrend. In this downtrend we get to the very strong resistance level. Here we see around 1.2600. If the price works through to here, so expect at least a short-term correction. Potential correction seen to 1.2400 level.

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