Vladimír Urbánek (Kurzy.cz)
Markets  |  August 24, 2012 09:27:18

Morning comment 24.08 - PMI, euro rise


Key Events

·         EU: Preliminary results of the purchasing managers index (the leading indicators of industry and services) dominated European statistics. In the case of the index for the euro area saw only marginal changes. In industry, the situation improved slightly by the index, while a surprise drop of services in Germany. Conclusion of the indicator results can be summarized as follows: in the euro area in the second half of GDP slump deepens.

·         USA: Results of local statistics yesterday rather disappointing. The number of weekly applications for unemployment benefits rose slightly. New home sales increased, but the situation in the property market remains far from pre-crisis levels.

The development of the foreign exchange market

·         Crown during yesterday led mixed. The currency pair is trading with the euro without apparent trend just below 25 CZK / EUR. Attempts to strengthen the crown ended at the level of 24.90 CZK / EUR. Against the U.S. dollar, the Czech currency broke through Tuesday's highs and several times during the day to test the level of 19.80 CZK / USD. Crown remains against both major currencies continue in the medium   appreciation trend and its shift to a slightly stronger levels in the coming weeks remains a likely option. During this time, however, due to the weekend can not exclude larger fluctuations of the koruna against the euro and the dollar.

·         The weakest region was the currency yesterday to change the Polish zloty. Against the euro since the beginning of the end of the afternoon, and lost no exception quotation above the level of 4.09 PLN / EUR. Trading on the currency pair, however, still been going on for more than a week in a lateral trend defined levels of 4.05 to 4.10 PLN / EUR. During the afternoon failed to even the Hungarian forint, which weakened the surface 277 HUF / EUR.

·         The common European currency against the dollar extended gains of the previous days and during the afternoon came in sight of the level of 1.26 USD / EUR. This makes it the strongest level since the euro early this July. Euro yet managed to strengthen the third day in a row, despite not very convincing statistics from the eurozone.Due to the still prevailing optimism in financial markets is likely in the coming weeks, further strengthening of the euro towards the minimum level of 1.27 USD / EUR. In the shorter term, a few days can not be ruled out a temporary correction of the euro to the level of about 1,245 USD / EUR.

Today's expected dates and events

·Czech Republic: Business cycle survey (August) - the expected decrease in confidence in industry can be expected to further decline in the general index.

·         EU: Greek Prime Minister Samaras meeting with German Chancellor Merkel.

·         U.S.: Durable goods orders (July).

Miroslav Novak
Analyst, as AKCENTA

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