Forex Zone (Forex Zone)
Czech markets  |  August 30, 2012 10:16:23

Fundamentals or policy


Beige Book released yesterday in the U.S. showed that 12 areas undergoing slow economic growth. Most of increasing economic activity reflected in retail sales, a small improvement is the area of unemployment. Other macro data released yesterday had to markets virtually no effect, and so we were witnessing yet another session with a small daily range (range) and low trading volumes. According to available information, yesterday's trading volumes on the futures e-mini S & P 500 one of the smallest this year, but in the last few years. The same applies to volumes traded on the NYSE.

The market will most likely waiting for one of the most important events of the year, which in our view at the economic forum in Davos. Today marks the beginning of economic symposium in Jackon Hole, USA. Encounter here will people today who are driving markets. Probably the most anticipated show is tomorrow's Ben Bernanke.

This in our opinion is not "anticipate" the FOMC decision that awaits us in the first half of September. Anyway, can not avoid the facts in the form of macro data, which are based on the U.S. economy in recent years positively.If Bernanke will act apolitically, so can not suggest tomorrow and after the FOMC meeting to announce another round of QE. If you comply with this rational scenario, we expect a weakening of risky assets, which in our view is currently near annual highs because of the expectation that Bernanke announces the next round of QE.

Regarding yesterday's developments on the monitored pair EUR / USD, so that the retained tooth and nail over the support around 1.2530, which is really strong. There was also a test level around 1.2520, to which we announced. The market also according to our expectations, spent some time trading above this level. Importantly, we have created three days during the second candle inside the daily chart. Her breakthrough is in our view an important event again. Will be published later today more macro data that can bring increased volatility and directional movement.

From a technical perspective we usually test a low potential for today's Asian session, as well as to test the 1.2518 level. Market in the short term moves to the side and this movement is beginning to manifest itself on the daily chart. Shoppers, however, have a slight advantage.If the published data do not provide a macro to change the view of EUR / USD, we expect that it will be up to Bernanke's speech tomorrow to continue movement in the trading range between 1.2580 and 1.2490.

Currently the pair EUR / USD traded at 1.2554 price. Below this we see significant price supports of about 1.2520 and about 1.2500 and 1.2450. Above the current market price we see significant resistance around 1.2600 and about 1.2640 and 1.2680.

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