Forex Zone (Forex Zone)
Czech markets  |  September 03, 2012 09:54:04

Chinese slowdown confirmed by other data


On Saturday, Chinese Statistical Office released the official value of the index of purchasing managers at factories (PMI). He reached in August, lower than the expected value of 49.2. HSBC has also unveiled its revised version of this indicator. After a few weeks ago brought the value of China's HSBC PMI index 49.3 and after revising it adjusted to 47.6.

The official value of the index is therefore the first time since November 2011 got below 50, which is a kind of dividing line between contraction and expansion of the economy. That same index published by HSBC, however, under 50 is already past 10 consecutive months. The survey, which is part of the index shows that manufacturing managers are most concerned about the low number of new orders, with both declining demand, mainly from the euro zone.

Picture of China's economy is not good, as well as the Japanese. The euro area do not even describe them. The only economy that is showing signs of at least mild operation is America's.Globally, it does not come to us from any strong image and yet the U.S. stock indices and risk assets are in high values. In our view, mainly due to expectations of QE by the Fed. These expectations keep Bernanke on Friday during a speech at an economic symposium in Jackon Hole. We eagerly wait to see if this bubble expectations for the next meeting of the Fed goes down.

As regards developments in the monitored pair EUR / USD, so he tested high on Friday Asian session, which we announcedand then to our surprise, continued to rise up to the top of the trading range on the daily chart. After the speech, Bernanke fired over high price margins. Entered into the market, but sellers and pushed the price back to the top of the trading range, close to the market eventually closed.

Today is a holiday in the U.S., so we expect a quieter trading day rather consolidation character with a smaller price range (range). This projected scenario may change disclosure macro PMI data from Europe and the ECB chief Draghi appearance before a committee of the European Parliament.

For today, we see potential for a test area around 1.2550 and potentially even the area around 1.2530. Medium term, our view is still valid, that is to test the 1.2400 level. But rather if it comes on the market after disappointing ECB meeting this week, or the Fed next week. Before we see more potential that the market will want to test the area around 1.2640, where on Friday entered sellers. We also see strong targets around 1.2690 levels. Important will be closing out trading range on the daily chart. This tells more.

Currently the pair EUR / USD traded at 1.2571 price. Below this we see significant price supports of about 1.2550 and about 1.2490 and 1.2460. Above we see the current price resistance around 1.2590 and about 1.2650 and 1.2690.

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