Cyrrus (Cyrrus)
Markets  |  September 06, 2012 10:09:09

Breakfast-stock 6.9 - + Draghi ECB, BoE, macro


Overview of the main events for Thursday, the 6th September 2012

USA

x

ASIA

Unexpectedly low unemployment in Australia

EUROPE

Today ECB meeting

SUPERSPAD

New composition Daxue

Upcoming Events

11:00 EZ preliminary 2Q GDP
12:00 BOE rate
12:00 Germany corporate orders
13:45 ECB rates
14:15 U.S. ADP employment change
14:30 application
14:30 Draghi press conference
16:00 ISM Services

10:30 Spain 2014,2015,2016 bonds

ASIA

  • Asian markets rose in anticipation of ECB meeting

Australia

  • Unemployment in Australia unexpectedly fell to 5.1% (est. 5.3%)

EUROPE

The ECB has already unveiled a plan yesterday

  • program to purchase bonds, which will not be limited by the volume
  • Will be sterilized, it will therefore be the QE
  • only shorter maturities, or up to 3 years
  • Bundesbank remains opposed
  • Probably it will only apply to countries that have applied for bailout
  • The ECB will have superior rights nor provide any level of income above which will buy
  • If a country does not meet the conditions and purchases in the secondary market stops

What to expect?

  • Expectation is (like last month), again a great
  • With the purchase of bond markets may have already counted
  • The question is whether it will reduce the current rate of 0.75% - but it would probably also reduce the deposit rate to negative
  • The rate cut is in the opinion of the market less likely

What is Germany?

  • It is still to have a concern about printing money - but that's nonsense, if the ECB sterilize
  • They are not sure if you buy bonds in the ECB's mandate (however protested in 1Q)
  • Perhaps the most likely explanation is that they do not want help before the SPA and Ita undertake to fulfill even tougher conditions
  • This is quite rational thought

And what says Spain?

  • We like the overall bailout request, but without any other conditions!
  • This will not pass, so they will continue to move

It is unlikely that the ECB will now target the long-term sustainable solution to the crisis

Will the purchase of bonds to try to relieve tension, but it is not a permanent solution.

They need to wait until 12.09 German constitutional court rules on ESM

Today will be another meeting

  • Merkel x Rajoy
  • Hollande x Cameron
  • Monti x Barroso

SUPERSPAD

New composition Daxue

  • Continental returns to Daxue after 45 months
  • Dax also goes to Lanxess - produces synthetic rubber
  • MAN and Metro falls
  • It is effective from September 24

Nokia

  • After yesterday's introduction of 2 new models -16%
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