Investiční bankovnictví (Komerční banka)
Commodities  |  September 14, 2012 16:20:00

Crown against the dollar on a six-month peak


The results of the FOMC meeting today and helped Central European currencies. Koruna against the dollar gains scored almost two percent when the interbank market strengthened to below 18.60 CZK / USD - the highest level since late March. Against the euro, the krone has improved by about two-tenths of one percent, when after 16 hour trading around the level of 24.40 CZK / EUR. Good results were zloty, which strengthened against the euro by half a percent. Conversely forint compared to yesterday's conclusion to the common European currency weakened slightly.

For us, the current level of the crown against the euro unjustifiably strong. Next week, while still able to persist a good mood on the markets when the crown could test the lower levels of his current band, in the longer term, however, we see more pressure on the weakening of the crown.And both due to fundamental macroeconomic reasons (recession), and because of our expectation that the CNB at its meeting on 27 September reduced the key repo rate to a record low 0.25%. Due to the ECB to leave rates last week at the same level would thus be reflected unfavorable interest rate differential on the Czech currency.

The macroeconomic data today was poor. We waited only Polish money supply M3 measured indicator for August, which rose by 0.7% m / m The July industrial production in Hungary was confirmed at -2.2% y / y. Mom fell by 1.2%.

On Monday in the Czech economy will see the August industrial prices. These should be in August increased by 0.1% m / m The reason for higher oil prices are expressed in crowns, which will push up the prices of refined petroleum products. Same direction should cause higher prices in agriculture with an impact on prices in the food industry. Anti-inflationary effect can however be expected from the development of the koruna against the euro. Annual growth in producer prices is expected to increase from 1.3% in July to 1.5% in August. In Poland, will be published in fulfillment of the state budget at the end of August.

The long end of the swap curve today Czech partially followed the movement of his counterpart euro, rising by 8 bp. The shorter end is moved up by 4 bp, curve thus increased its slope.

Author: Marek Dřímal

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