Research (Proinvestory.cz)
Markets  |  September 17, 2012 12:37:26

How to build a pension reform?


A week ago I was at the fair Investor. In discussions with participants occurred on pension reform. Several times I've alluded to this view of the reform, why I do not like the settings. Because the interviews were interesting, I decided to write my view.

As a man over 35 years I have almost a year to the irreversible decision that affects the entire rest of my life. Of whether they go up to the second pension pillar, or not.

By entering the pillars   by today's rules, undertake to pay 2% of their monthly income with the fact that the state 3% of my income transfer from the continuous system for my individual account. I have an above average income, purely mathematically speaking, it is a super deal.Each investment has its three aspects: the potential return, risk and liquidity. Let them look very briefly.

Yield:   For participants is a key factor for the yield achieved become two choices: the choice of the management company and   choose the type of fund  (Although between them will change trains). Due to the development of funds would, in terms of revenue, expect any miracles, especially after deducting inflation.

Simulate board obtained at different wage levels, different income funds (enter real returns adjusted for inflation, those expected reduced by a few percentage points, (to 1-2% average inflation forget) and time savings can be at retirement calculator   Ministry of Labour and Social Affairs. There you will see a comparison with a continuous system.

Risk: That each fund has its classical degree of investment risk, it is probably obvious to any reader. I do not see a problem here, with classic investment risk I can handle.

Key risks of the project, however, the global economic - political risk, or the risk of major changes to the rules during the game without the possibility respond to these changes. With this risk can not cope.

State may at any time during the game-changer. Can change the mandatory contribution rate may change the percentage transferred from the continuous system to individual account funds may impose a minimum share of government bonds in the portfolio (which fundamentally affect the attainable yield) may allow an increase in charges can change the allowed methods of payment means, may receive payment significantly tax etc. etc. etc.

Liquidity: Liquidity is zero, the savings can not quit, you can not get out of the pillars, or part of an early withdrawal of money (the existing pension scheme has a significantly larger liquidity).

Investors should keep in mind that the next 20 years can be very different from the recent past,   financial markets can (and probably will) look completely different.Therefore, I see zero liquidity and thus the possibility of responding to changes in the future as a risk factor empowering.

How to decide?

The decision is up to each of us. Collect the necessary information and decide to recommend now, in the time before the media and advertising massage that surely awaits us and where the risks described in my downplayed.

From my perspective, the key parameter in deciding the position of each individual investor to political risk for illiquidity. Who is willing to accept the risks described above, the funds will be welcomed with open arms. Type of fund can then choose the structure of your long-term portfolio and willingness to accept risk. Who is not willing to accept these risks, that let you save for retirement without the use of the second pillar. But save some way everyone should, retirement from the continuous system will definitely not be sufficient in the future.

Risks for illiquidity seem to me disproportionate to the potential yield. The second pillar not use, I'll save for retirement through other means.

If you have your own views on pension reform, feel the piston in the comments to this article, or, if that is your comprehensive comment, send it to the readers of articles .

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