Research (Česká spořitelna)
Markets  |  September 18, 2012 09:14:21

Morning restart 09.18 - EMU in contraction in 3Q, Merkel hamper bank Union, Spanish yields


The probability that the economy EMU in 3Q falls again slightly increased. Seasonally adjusted EMU trade surplus in July fell to 7.9 billion euros (from June's 9.3). Mom dropped both imports and exports, while the others a little more. Falling global demand is the other factor (the most powerful domestic), which pulls down the European economy.

Even this could eventually encourage the ECB to further reduce rates. About what else he could do ECB, yesterday he talked one of the members of its council, Belgian Luc Coene. In addition to lowering the policy rate also spoke negative deposit rate or the next round of LTRO. Not that it was the last to be released.Coene just explained what all the ECB may have to offer, without full embarked on quantitative easing.

Angela Merkel is the next in line, which dampened enthusiasm for rapid and broad banking union, as the name suggested last week EK J.-M. Barroso. In her statement yesterday, no need to hurry important than compliance deadline is January functionality and credibility of its final form.

Spanish yields are rising slowly and the ten-year yields are already back above 6%. The reason is speculation about whether and when Spain calls for help. Weekend protests in Madrid showed that the government of promoting other savings will not be easy. That is why the EU is reluctant to ask for help, even if it meant to her that the ECB started to buy its bonds and thus brought her almost instant relief.

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Ranní restart 18.9. - EMU i ve 3Q v kontrakci, Merkelová brzdí bankovní unii, španělské výnosy

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