Research (Investicniweb.cz)
World markets  |  September 25, 2012 15:11:51

Graphs from the workshop Barclays Bode, that optimism will not last long on the stock exchanges



The discrepancy between the economic cycle and the appreciation of the U.S. stock market is still remarkable. The following three graphs illustrate how high hopes are now included in the prices of shares. Investors believe a successful earnings season, the recovery of the world economy, or that American politicians (perhaps as usual until the eleventh hour) to prevent fiscal cliff from which the U.S. economy is beginning fall 2013.

No good news on the horizon, a threat

Weak data confirm only anemic economic growth, monetary policy stimulates the economy of forces without much success and political uncertainty increases. The stock market is becoming more and more dependent on the central bank's helping hand. On top Add the still high price of oil, which is linked with expensive gasoline, food prices, inflation risks from the Fed's balance sheet for the U.S. dollar and rising commodity prices. The result is a decreasing consumption, and thus slowing growth.

The following graph compares the expected P / E (ratio of share price and earnings per share) and ISM new orders index. Are you still of the opinion that the current valuation is sustainable?

Expected P / E r. ISM new orders index

Frequently used way to assess the attractiveness of shares, the risk premium (equity risk premium - ERP), ie the difference between expected stock returns and government bond. The historical experience of a period of extreme financial repression in the U.S. after World War II that the decline ERP sustainable growth in the current P / E is not likely until the Fed starts to normalize its policy.

Read also:

When the calculations we include inflation and the ratio of stock to bond market volatility, we get a much less attractive figure valuations. Fed did not resort to normalize its monetary policy already at least three years, and so the next graph (real interest rate r. P / E) indicates that current valuation unsustainable.
Real interest rate r. expected P / E

What other charts from the workshop Barclays shows that the bulls will not have it easy at all
can be found on the web Investment

Read also:


Was this article: 10 | 8 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0


Last news from the section World markets:

Po 21:59  Wall Street Closing Bell & výhled na 24. 10. 17 Grant Capital (Grant Capital)
Po 16:33  IPO Aramca proběhne ve 2. polovině r. 2018 Vladimír Urbánek (Kurzy.cz)
Po 15:15  Příchod ETF robotů na Wall Street? STOX.CZ (Grant Capital)
Po 12:30  Boom polovodičových ETF STOX.CZ (Grant Capital)

Read also:

December 12, 2016Konec roku přináší na trhy dlouho nevídaný optimismus Patria (Patria Online)
February 16, 2016Jak dlouho vydrží trhům závan optimismu? Ekonomický deník (Ekonomický deník)
July 16, 2015Domácí dílna: jak si zařídit domácí dílnu Jiřina Kavková (Bydlet.cz)

Grafy z dílny Barclays věstí, že optimismus na burzách nepotrvá dlouho

Diskuze a názory

Na dané téma nejsou žádné názory.


Zobrazit sloupec 
Moner | ISIN database | Weather forecast
Česká verze
Kurzy.cz - Akcie cz, kurzy měn, forex, zlato.
Favorite: Prague Stock Exchange Czech crown Czech economy Commodities Gold Trademarks Prague Weather

Copyright © 2000 - 2017

Kurzy.cz, spol. s r.o., AliaWeb, spol. s r.o.,

ISSN 1801-8688