Research (Proinvestory.cz)
Markets  |  September 25, 2012 15:22:00

Invite China to Japan black swans?


What is it? The conflict between China and Japan. Not only that, unexpectedly appeared, but no one today can not predict its impact. Mainly economic.

Detonator whole dispute has become a fact that the Japanese government had purchased from a private party three small uninhabited islands, which he claims as China.Both countries have fallen into almost a state of war, disruption of the waters can be considered "teasing" one side of the other. And in a situation where the volume of bilateral trade in recent years has been growing rapidly and is approaching the limit of $ 400 billion per year. China is Japan's biggest trading partner, larger than the United States.

Relations in the last century were also not always friendly, so it will be difficult to settle such dispute, moreover, when it is dragged into the public in the form of demonstrations and the like.It then makes any concession to the very hard, especially if we take into account that both nations are enormously sensitive to any "humiliation".

Or political situation on both sides is not perfect. Expected new Chinese leader since the beginning of September, after two weeks (de facto, until the outbreak of the crisis) appeared in public, the Japanese finance minister was assassinated, newly appointed Japanese Ambassador to China died before entering the function ...

With regard to the economic situation of both countries, neither can not jump.   Japan severely affects a significant drop in orders in engineering   and it must refinance over the next few months, more than 2.5 trillion dollars.Therefore, the Bank of Japan is doing what he can see a few days ago announced Acceleration pumping money into the economy (implemented was 10 trillion yen, but only with the effect of the order of hours). Well there's not China that comes with the change of fiscal stimulus .

To do this, according to some reports coming cyber war with China, when the Japanese attacks the selected sites, including the site of Japanese ministries, courts and others. That these sites really tripped by accident at this time, believes that about anybody.

Another war is speeding   financial and economic war  between these countries. Here, it acts as a battle between the recent allies. Both countries also agreed to exclude from the dollar in bilateral trade and to use their own currencies. As for this war, there is a significant advantage of China.

Japan was announced in December 2010 program purchase Chinese government bonds, and I wonder how it will continue such purchases. The first steps in this area seems to make China, which is considering the sale of previously purchased Japanese bonds (which has $ 230 billion).You would probably have to buy up the secondary market of the Bank of Japan, otherwise the price went down and interest rates would have experienced an explosion. Inflation would have given the ongoing battle with deflation are not so scary. So if this sale is not afraid of other investors and started massively selling their Japanese bonds.

Another advantage is the structure of China's bilateral trade. China exports to Japan more goods with low added value (as in most countries). While his failure to hit China, but less than Japan outage hits its engineering exports to China (especially at times of challenge with a significant decline in machinery orders).

An important role for the further development will play the U.S. position. However, they are balancing on a knife edge. The main word is not likely to have a Secretary of State, as one would expect, but the Minister of Finance.

38px georgia, times, serif; color: rgb (0, 0, 0); text-transform: none; text-indent: 0px; letter-spacing: normal; word-spacing: 0px; white-space: normal; orphans: 2, Widows: 2;-webkit-text-size-adjust: auto;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; "> About how this crisis will affect the United States had decided the money. A long-term U.S. ally in Japan was , where the United States used as military bases, Japan believes that the United States is on their side. anything like that in China it is not, there is a relationship based on trade, where China has significant surpluses.

Coincidentally, both countries hold virtually the same volume of government bonds of the United States - about 1.1 trillion dollars. Volumes held U.S. bonds to offset due to the substantial Chinese sales last year. The United States will probably balance what you can, because if one of the parties to the conflict got mad and threw the market for U.S. bonds trillion dollars, markets would nicely waved. God forbid, if the behavior of the United States was not satisfied either Japan or China, and both parties would be shed on the U.S. bond market ...

Conflict few islets and effort to pull in front of voters, it can become an economic detonator next round of financial crisis.

Tyto zprávy pro vás vytváří server Proinvestory.cz ve spolupráci se serverem SILVERUM .
Was this article: 10 | 8 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0



Read also:

April 23, 2015Kroužící černé labutě Research (Proinvestory.cz)
December 16, 2014Jak se připravit na další černou labuť? Research (Investicniweb.cz)
November 20, 2014Černé labutě. Jak se zajistit? STOX.CZ (Grant Capital)
November 07, 2014Černá Labuť - ekonomický hit v praxi ČeskéZlatéRezervy (České zlaté rezervy)

Přivolávají Čína s Japonskem černé labutě?

Diskuze a názory

Na dané téma nejsou žádné názory.


Zobrazit sloupec 
Moner | ISIN database | Weather forecast
Česká verze
Kurzy.cz - Akcie cz, kurzy měn, forex, zlato.
Favorite: Prague Stock Exchange Czech crown Czech economy Commodities Gold Trademarks Prague Weather

Copyright © 2000 - 2017

Kurzy.cz, spol. s r.o., AliaWeb, spol. s r.o.,

ISSN 1801-8688