Cyrrus (Cyrrus)
Markets  |  October 04, 2012 09:48:53

Joint Stock breakfast 04.10 - Waiting for the ECB, bank stress tests, the company, the macro



Overview of the main events for Thursday, the 4th October 2012

USA

Slight increases due to macros

ASIA

A positive reaction to U.S. macro

EUROPE

Waiting for the ECB, Stress testing of banks

SUPERSPAD

HP, AAA Auto, Daimler

COMMODITIES

Oil

Upcoming Events

10:30 Spanish bond auction 20115/16/17
13:45 ECB interest rates
14:30 ECB TK
14:30 Applications USA
16:00 USA Industrial orders
20:00 Fed Minutes

USA

  • Slight increases through good macros (employment in the souk. Sector PMI services)

ASIA

  • A positive reaction to U.S. data

EUROPE

ECB

  • Today again a decision on rates (13:45), followed by a press conference Draghi (14:30)
  • Expected to leave interest rates, the change is expected to the end of the year
  • The main interest rate is currently at 0.75%, the deposit rate to 0%
  • Rather, it is waiting for further details on the operation of OMT
  • Eg. precise conditions for entry to sec ECB market or whether it will be able to buy bonds even before the conditions approved by finance ministers EZ
  • Another question the ECB's outlook for the economy if recession is expected to return for 3Q or not

EBA - FINAL RESULTS OF STRESS TEST

  • Yesterday evening published the final and complete results of EBA stress tests, according to which banks have to 30.6.2012 to reach core capital adequacy ratio of at least 9%
  • Preliminary results were published in July and involved 27 of the original 31 banks (Dexia, Bankia, Volksbank and WestLB restructuring or were nationalized), which was identified lack of capital
  • These 27 banks had at the beginning of stress test capital deficit totaling 76 billion
  • The June 30, 2012, these banks have increased capital by 115.7 billion euros, either for itself a capital increase (72%) or reduce risk-weighted assets (28%)
  • 24 out of 27 banks achieved capital adequacy ratio above 9%, three banks that have not reached the border, the Italian Banca Monte dei Paschi di Sienna and the two Cypriot banks.
  • To do this, yet the Slovenian Nova Banka Maribor credit originally belonged to banks that meet the 9% threshold to 30 June 2012 but fell below the threshold and has a special plan and should reach 9% of the border by the end of 2012
  • Complete results of tests revealed no new information vs. July

Erste

  • Erste June 30, 2012 amounted to capital adequacy according to the methodology EBA of 9.9%, ie above the desired safely EBA
  • This is in accordance St. July reportovaným number
  • Neutral

SUPERSPAD

HP

  • On the day Investors CEO unveiled a new plan to change the company
  • Year 2013 will be the year the reconstruction say HP, but the change will take longer than originally planned
  • For 2013, EPS is expected USD 3.4 to 3.6, an estimate of the market $ 4.16
  • Next year release 26 thousand. of Cu-
  • They plan to focus on a narrower range of products, and only in key markets, dividend policy and does not want to change the buyback program (has 3 fairly strict conditions)
  • Total restructuring costs in 2013 $ 1.5 billion
  • The result of a decrease of 13% to the bottom of the eight

AAA Auto

  • Today reported sales for 9M cars this year
  • In 3Q sold 13,161 cars (+13.1% yoy) to 13,666 2Q and 1Q 12175
  • For CR sales in 3Q stagnated, due to problems with the Central Vehicle Register through August and September - people were afraid to buy new cars
  • Overall, it sold 39,002 cars this year vs. 50,000 cars by the end of the plan year (which slightly exceed)
  • The shares it will have a neutral impact

Daimler

  • Aabar (fund of Abu Dhabi) sold its 3% stake in Daimler
  • Information according to the German press, is not endorsed
  • If this is true, Aabar sell at a loss

COMMODITIES

Oil

  • Two-month decline on bottom
  • The reason for this report the highest production in the U.S. for the last 15 years

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Akciová snídaně 4.10. - čekání na ECB, bankovní stress testy, firmy, makra

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