World markets  |  October 04, 2012 17:52:38

Markets correction yet do not want to! / BIG EXPERT - foreign markets: Week 1 10th 2,012


In recent weeks, the financial markets again feel nervous. Reports of a possible third package of financial aid for Greece as a result of the extension of two years of reform and hesitation Rajoye Spanish Prime Minister with a request for assistance made their own. Major stock indexes have become separated from their highs and are now nervously stalled slightly lower, but still in post-crisis highs.

Endless liquidity injections, to which the Fed and the ECB are still committed to giving investors hope for economic recovery, although despite QE1, QE 2, TWIST operation, LTRO LTRO 1 and 2 still coming. According to the motto: "Where force is not there it will go even higher power"! the ECB decided to unlimited purchases of European bonds and basically gave up on their independence. FED stepped in order to continue printing money through QE 3 and at the same time continuing operations TWIST.

For me personally, just nedostavující inflation is only a confirmation of the depth of the current crisis.

The problem is not an offer, as in 2008, but demand. The consumer is a result of the austerity measures are often forced to drastically reduce their expenses and those without, as is common knowledge economy "is down".

The objective, therefore, that they wanted to achieve the most important central banks, increase wealth through inflation still does not meet. Unemployment in Europe is increasing, not decreasing unemployment in the U.S. (only move to the category - excluded from the records and not as unemployed in the official statistics).

Central bankers only buy time for the affected banks, which give space by printing money to clean up its balance sheet. The core of the problem is still not addressed. In particular, declining labor productivity, an aging population and low or almost zero competitiveness (particularly in Europe - especially France) raise legitimate concerns.

In the coming months we will see a few key events that will determine the direction of further trading. It will be presidential elections in the U.S., solving the so-called "fiscal cliff", ie a set of automatic cuts in the U.S. budget, sharp debate about the occurrence of banking and fiscal union in Europe. We must not forget the growing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, where Iran start due to the oil embargo finance experience and his possible reaction is difficult to estimate.

From the above for me in the next period shows only - caution. Investors should not succumb to rally built on feet of clay also do not generate any wealth. Selection of a particular investment instrument should be more than ever careful consideration.

Karel Handbag, CAPITAL GRANT


Expert opinions on the future development in selected foreign markets monitored through indices and comparison with the Czech capital market (PX) over one and a half months of the year in week 1 10th 2012th


Experts estimate for the period of one month

Pointer
Hodn.
First 10th
Diameter
Median
Change
in%
Interval
Growth
Decrease
PX
967.68
962.00
970
ˇ -0.59
940-978
3
2
Dow Jones (U.S.)
13 515,11
13 481,00
13600
ˇ-0.25
13150 - 13665
3
2
NASDAQ (U.S.)
3 113,53
3 170,60
3,163
^ 1.83
3050 - 3350
3
2
FTSE 100 (UK)
5 820,50
5 798,40
5,760
ˇ -0.38
5650 - 5950
2
3
DAX (Germany)
7 326,73
7 361,20
7,381
^ 0.47
7175 - 7480
4
1
Nikkei 225 (JPN)
8 796,51
8 925,20
8,924
^ 1.46
8700 - 9150
3
2

Experts estimate for the period of 6 months

Pointer
Hodn.
First 10th
Diameter
Median
Change
in%
Interval
Growth
Decrease
PX
967.68
970.20
980
^ 0.26
935 - 1 000
3
2
Dow Jones (U.S.)
13 515,11
13 636,80
13700
^ 0.90
13 290 - 14 000
3
2
NASDAQ (U.S.)
3 113,53
3 202,00
3,238
^ 2.84
3 000 - 3350
3
2
FTSE 100 (UK)
5 820,50
5 883,00
5,850
^ 1.07
5550 - 6250
3
2
DAX (Germany)
7 326,73
7 376,80
7,234
^ 0.68
7050 - 7800
2
3
Nikkei 225 (JPN)
8 796,51
9 097,00
9,100
^ 3.42
8735 - 9 400
4
1

Rating this week performed:

  • Menčík Thomas, George Šimara - CYRRUS
  • Libor Bucek, Jan Mach, Milan Nedbálek - FINANCE Zlín
  • Patrick Hudec - Generali PPF Asset Management, a fund manager společnost
  • Karel Handbag, Miroslav Hlavoň - CAPITAL GRANT
  • Jaroslav Brychta - X-Trade Brokers

The tables contain a summary of the estimates of experts in the list. The column "Actual value" represents the value of the monitored indices (Friday's closing value), from which experts in their estimates came out. With this value, the estimates of experts after a period of one to six months, compared to evaluate success. "Median" is a number that is in the middle the size of a structured set of estimates and "Interval Estimates" lists the minimum and maximum estimate file.Columns "Increase / Decrease" indicate the number of experts assume that the index of the period under consideration, given the current value rises or falls.
Note: Estimates are in the form of non-binding opinions with regard to the expected development in the next one month and a half year. The fact, however, may substantially differ from the estimates of experts. Experts even Kurzy.cz assume no responsibility for these differences.

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Trhy zatím korekci nechtějí! / BIG EXPERT - zahraniční trhy: týden od 1. 10. 2012

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