Josef Kvarda (HighSky)
Investor's window  |  October 08, 2012 11:59:07

The Fed and the Economy: The next chapter


The U.S. economy has shown in recent months signals mixed performance. Fed unexpectedly in August signaled deterioration of its performance and vulnerability to external and internal shocks, and thus further delay the fulfillment of one of its primary objectives - full employment. As if the central bank was losing patience with the somewhat lackluster potency economy. This was no fear, many members of the FOMC (Federal Open Market Commitee - Fed body that decides on interest rates) meetings of the committee said that another round of monetary expansion should come soon - in the event that the economy does not recognize a distinct and sustainable rate of economic strengthening recovery.During the month of course, a major change in the Fed's view of the economy and the central bank not to present the next wave of monetary easing. Each shift in the Fed's view does not remain unanswered markets. Economists may argue about how much the Fed fears justified, whether the economy needs more drastic action. How do the American economy, and its activity is what you can expect from her?

From the perspective of the main indicators of GDP or employment: not giddy, but not catastrophic. Economic growth achieved in the first half of approximately 2%, non-farm employment growth in the same period varies from 45 000 to 275 000th Investment firms and export in the first half of the year showed solid growth as in the pre-crisis periods. In recent quarters, finally saw some flashes of market recovery home. Indicators are the vast majority of late. Fed has to worry other economic parameters. In particular, the consistently weak points of the U.S. economy: a lousy consumer sentiment depressed by high unemployment, expensive energy, the difficult market conditions and home loans. Financial markets are far from equilibrium.

Another difficulty is the tendency of a dynamic economy. Tsunami in the form of the euro zone debt crisis for several months collide climate industry and services and weaken export. Even leading indicators still indicate expectations of companies turning point, but rather wait for positive momentum - for example in the form of global uncertainty clarification or support the economy fiscal or monetary policy. Another moment stressful Fed are potential risks. May be significantly worse because the weakened economy and volatile markets may face a debt crisis in the euro zone accelerated fiscal brake or a confirmation of the validity of the relevant laws leavers fiscal expansion.

At a press conference after the decision on strengthening the monetary expansion by the Fed chief Bernanke perhaps the most commonly faced issues journalists, aiming not so much at risk of inflation, but rather the effectiveness of monetary intervention.Bernanke admitted uncertain economic developments and some parameters as well as the fact that the central bank can not solve some of the problems of the economy. His answer in the context of the message between the lines markets Fed might sound something like this: Fed will take any step that could help in accomplishing his goals.

Ing. Josef Kvarda

analytik společnosti HighSky Brokers, a.s.

Vystudoval ekonomickou fakultu VŠB v Ostravě, obor národohospodářství. Působil jako analytik ve společnosti ATLANTIK finanční trhy, kde se zabýval makroekonomickými analýzami a projekcemi hlavních světových ekonomik a finančních trhů, zejména měn. Od ledna 2012 pracuje jako analytik ve společnosti HighSky Brokers a pokrývá forexové a komoditní trhy. Rovněž se specializuje na světovou a domácí makroekonomickou situaci. Pravidelně přednáší o finančních trzích a fundamentální analýze na seminářích pro veřejnost. Součástí jeho analytické práce je také poskytování informací a komentářů.

O SPOLEČNOSTI
Společnost HighSky Brokers, a.s. je prvním obchodníkem s cennými papíry na českém trhu, který svým klientům poskytuje možnost obchodovat měny, komodity, akcie, akciové indexy a dluhopisy prostřednictvím nové obchodní platformy MetaTrader 5. Tuto platformu využívá jako jeden z prvních i v Evropě. Společnost vznikla v roce 2010 a disponuje licencí České národní banky. Základní kapitál společnosti činí 37, 5 milionů korun.

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