Cyrrus (Cyrrus)
Markets  |  October 15, 2012 10:40:10

Joint Stock breakfast 15.10 - Earnings season starts off fully, semmit EU's NWR



Overview of key messages for pondšlí 15th October 2012

 

 

USA

Earnings season

ASIA

Mixed Trading

EUROPE

EU Summit

SUPERSPAD

NWR

COMMODITIES

Oil

Upcoming Events

14:30 Industrial activity in the NY Fed USA
14:30 Retail sales USA

Citigroup - 14:00
LVMH - results after market
Coca Cola - tomorrow before market
Intel, IBM - tomorrow after the market

USA

Earnings season

  • So far reported 35 companies from the S & P 500, of which 69% of the profit exceeded estimates and 51% in sales
  • In 2Q season it was 68% in profits and 42% of sales
  • Among the best yet Yum! Brands and Taco Bell
  • Conversely disappointment at Alcoa, AMD, Wells Fargo
  • Increases but the number of warning to 4Q profit
  • Over the past four weeks was 4 times more reports than with reduced view of the increased
  • The highest ratio since March 2009

ASIA

  • Mixed trading, promoting better data from China (stronger export growth and the projected low inflation)

EUROPE

EU Summit

  • The two-day meeting of 18 and 19.10
  • One of the agenda items and Greece
  • The local politicians were given the task to solve the 89 points from 10.8 the beginning of the summit
  • The Summit (not) to perform these tasks will be evaluated
  • Schaeuble rejects the consideration of Greek default, the Swedish Minister of Finance considers the exit of Greece from the EZ as likely
  • Act will probably also Union Bank
  • According to Draghi will not boot a single bank supervision conducted by the ECB still "year or so"
  • Among other issues will still refusing bailout Spain

EUR / USD

  • Still at the highest levels since May of this year
  • Strong support for 200 d MA, from which several have bounced

SUPERSPAD

NWR

Prices on 4q2012

  • Price of coking coal for 4Q2012 102 EUR / t, Which is 20% q / q decline compared to Q3 (originally reporting the agreed price for 3Q 130 EUR / t was reduced to 126 EUR / t)
  • Brutal decline was expected, my projection was 104 EUR / t, so big surprise for the market it is not, which does not change the fact that it is an extremely low price, which was last here in 2009, and which is well below the NWR which ensures profit
  • Coke price went q / q down by 8% to 264 EUR / t, which is slightly positive surprise, I was expecting a larger drop. This is partly due to the fact that in contracted sales mix is more more expensive foundry coke than in previous quarters

NWR production and sales 3q

  • In 3q produced 2.83 million tonnes of coal, which is more than my predicted 2.6 million tons. However, sales are weaker, especially for coal, where I waited for the sale of 0.2 million tons higher. For coking are OK, vs. 1.16 million tons. my estimate of 1.19 million tonnes
  • In practice, therefore, again, like in 2Q, benefited to the warehouse, where they already have relatively high stocks harvested / unsold coal
  • For coke production 176 thousand. tonnes is OK, but selling 129 thousand. tons lower than expected (the aforementioned higher proportion of foundry coke apparently because they sell less blast furnace coke)

NWR views

  • Keep in force target extraction from 11.0 to 11.1 million tons in 2012 and 700 thousand. tons of coke
  • However, reduced the expected sales of 10.3 to 10.4 million tons of coal from 10.2 to 10.3 million tons of coal
  • Adequately increase the expected amount of coal reserves at the end of the year from 500 to 600 thousand. at 600-700 thousand.
  • Sales mix also changed, instead of 48% vs. coking. 52% energy objectives at 50:50 now, which is nothing more than that, obviously sell less coal than expected (Dětmarovice?)

Overall

  • Prices very low, even if the market should not be a surprise. On the other hand, only confirmation that the current pressure to NWR
  • Reducing coal sales perspective, not as painful due to the fact that obviously a thermal coal (which does not gain NWR)
  • So overall confirmation that they are in a very difficult situation, the results for 3Q and 4Q will be quite weak, the recovery is not yet on the horizon
  • NWR and will likely remain under pressure to continue

COMMODITIES

Oil

  • Drops for the second day
  • Iran has again submitted a bid to end uranium enrichment program
  • In exchange requests guaranteed supply of enriched uranium for its reactor in Tehran
  • Technical support by Fibonacci at $ 89.83
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Akciová snídaně 15.10. - výsledková sezóna se rozjíždí naplno, semmit EU, NWR

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