Czech markets  |  October 18, 2012 18:09:32

Invisible rally / BIG EXPERT - shares: Week 15 10th 2,012


For those who do not follow through and Czech stock market, it may be surprising that domestic shares in the second half of the year quite added. It's such a quiet rally. This happens in the background of reports about how the world is heading into a recession as it takes to rescue Spain, when Greece finally exits from the Eurozone and the United States at once the fiscal cliff. Some shouts at central banks "can stimulate or perish", others on the contrary cruise from disaster when they see how courageous steps to the central planning authorities and what they are already doing. Meanwhile, stocks are added. From the 4th June, when the index saw home local minima at 855 points, they have added a 140 (+16%) and close to thousands border.

How do you explain the discrepancy? Everything bad and shares (not us) grow. Just for example: Commercial Bank reached a minimum at the end of May, and added nearly 40%, Erste Bank lows in late June, has also added nearly 40%; CME lows in early July, has added nearly 50%; ČEZ lows in late July and has added about 13%; Telefónica credited with dividend 23%; late turnover experienced ORCO, but gains in the hundreds of percent. All titles, however, grow, KITD is caught up in the last days, Fortuna nothing much and so do not yet NWR. But the overall picture is quite encouraging.

The reason may be that none of those messages is not new - the first crisis around Greece for more than a year old thing, Spain is the last wallpaper? year and that growth collapses or is very weak also not new.And central banks have intervened and intervening is likely to be, but nothing happens - no miraculous recovery, nor threatening inflation (thus far).

All these are probably old themes that are already counted in the courses and although still filling the headlines with what is going to happen, they have so much in common - rather they relate to what's going on. If we look at is how much was in the beginning of 2011, Erste Bank, for example, we find that today we (after growth) to half its original value. For example, in NWR's even a quarter. So the prices reflect what happened. But now they are in the game seems to have other issues which we, ordinary mortals, yet really understand, but they give no new direction. It can be acclimation companies in the new conditions of their deal with the risks stemming from the Eurozone crisis, adapting to slower growth, downsizing, etc.Finally, it can be a calming investors who are aligned with the new reality. Maybe we were already in some after-crisis period, without it we really noticed.

Roman Skalicky, LUTHERUS

Expert opinions on the future development of selected stocks on the Czech capital market in the next month and a half, in the week of 15 10th 2012th


The estimate for the period from 15 10th to 12 11th 2012 (1 months)

Name
Attractiveness
Price
(Monday)
Definitely
buy
Buy
No
action
Sell
Definitely
sell
CETV
^ 20
130
0
2
3
0
0
ČEZ
^ 20
721
1
1
2
1
0
UNIPETROL
^ 20
171.5
1
0
4
0
0
ERSTE BANK GROUP
0
467
0
0
5
0
0
FORTUNA
0
87
0
0
5
0
0
NWR
ˇ -10
81.7
0
0
4
1
0
COMMERCIAL BANK
ˇ -20
4,145
0
1
1
3
0
PHILIP MORRIS CR
ˇ -30
11190
0
1
2
0
2
TELEFÓNICA O2 CR
ˇ -30
407
0
1
0
4
0
PEGAS NONWOVENS
ˇ ˇ -60
485
0
0
0
4
1


The estimate for the period from 15 10th 2012 to 15 4th 2013 (6 months)

Name
Attractiveness
Price
(Monday)
Definitely
buy
Buy
No
action
Sell
Definitely
sell
CETV
^ ^ 50
130
1
3
1
0
0
ERSTE BANK GROUP
^^ 50
467
1
3
1
0
0
ČEZ
^ 30
721
1
2
1
1
0
NWR
^ 30
81.7
0
3
2
0
0
UNIPETROL
^ 10
171.5
1
0
3
1
0
COMMERCIAL BANK
^ 10
4,145
0
1
4
0
0
FORTUNA
0
87
0
0
5
0
0
PEGAS NONWOVENS
0
485
0
1
3
1
0
PHILIP MORRIS CR
ˇ -10
11190
1
1
1
0
2
TELEFÓNICA O2 CR
ˇ ˇ -50
407
0
0
1
3
1

Rating this week performed:

  • Libor Bucek, Jan Mach, Milan Nedbálek - FINANCE Zlín
  • Patrick Hudec - Generali PPF Asset Management, a fund manager společnost
  • Karel Handbag, Miroslav Hlavoň - CAPITAL GRANT
  • Roman Skalicky - LUTHERUS
  • Dušan Reactive - UniCredit Bank Czech Republic

Statistics deals with ten of the most liquid stocks traded on the PSE. The tables contain a summary of the estimates of experts listed. The column "Price" the Monday course selected titles from which to its estimates experts came out.With this value estimates will be after a period of one to six months, compared to evaluate success. The column "Attractiveness" the weighted average number of views and can take values ??from -100 to +100. Number of views "Sell", "Buy", etc. is published in other columns.
Note: Ratings are in the form of non-binding opinions, whether a security would be advisable to buy or sell with regard to the expected development in the next one month and a half year. The fact, however, may substantially differ from the estimates of experts. Experts even Kurzy.cz assume no responsibility for these differences.

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Neviditelná rally / BIG EXPERT - akcie: týden od 15. 10. 2012

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