World markets  |  October 18, 2012 19:12:26

This Week prevail in more optimism / BIG EXPERT - foreign markets: Week 15 10th 2,012


Trading on capital markets this week carried on a positive note, mainly due to reports from the Eurozone periphery. There is the speculation that Spain is ready to apply for financial aid and start to bond purchases by the ESM and ECB. Other good news was the decision of Moody's rating of Spain to leave without changes in the investment zone. Pleasantly surprised and macroeconomic numbers. Especially that of the real estate market in the U.S., where the construction of new houses and the number of building permits issued in September reached its four-year highs, and significantly exceeded market expectations. The published data thus confirm the very strong activity in this sector.

In the domestic bond market in the center of government bond auctions were fixed coupon of 3.85% maturing in 2021 and the five-year bond with a variable coupon and investors become more interested in a bond with a fixed coupon. The Ministry of Finance has now ensured virtually 100% of the originally planned gross borrowing needs for this year. Czech swap curve in this period has seen minimal movements. A little livelier trading took place on the domestic currency. The first reinforced when on Monday 25 CZK / EUR got up to Wednesday's 24.70 crowns per euro. Crown profited from the favorable sentiment in the financial markets, which is reflected, among others, the strengthening of the euro. On Thursday koruna weakened slightly again.

Regarding the basic interest rate, so after he CNB lowered its September meeting of interest to new lows (0.25%) announced that, after depletion of the interest rate channel will be another instrument of its policy for possible easing of monetary conditions, the exchange rate channel, ie steps aimed at weakening koruna. Data from the Czech economy in the direction plead lack of demand-inflationary pressures in the Czech economy and CNB alone perceives risk its August forecast as skewed towards downside. However, it is unlikely that the CNB has softened its policy at the next board meeting. I expect, therefore, that monetary policy instruments remain on the bank board meeting in early November, unchanged.

Martin Peck, Generali PPF Asset Management,
fund manager společnost

Expert opinions on the future development in selected foreign markets monitored through indices and comparison with the Czech capital market (PX) in the next month and a half, in the week of 15 10th 2012th


Experts estimate for the period of one month

Pointer
Hodn.
12th 10th
Diameter
Median
Change
in%
Interval
Growth
Decrease
PX
986.85
982.80
980
ˇ -0.41
970-1 002
1
4
Dow Jones (U.S.)
13 424,23
13 491,40
13600
^ 0.50
13300 - 13630
3
2
NASDAQ (U.S.)
3 064,18
3 086,40
3,060
^ 0.73
3020 - 3190
2
3
FTSE 100 (UK)
5 805,60
5 855,40
5,905
^ 0.86
5742 - 5960
3
2
DAX (Germany)
7 261,25
7 310,40
7,250
^ 0.68
7225 - 7450
2
3
Nikkei 225 (JPN)
8 577,93
8 863,80
8,900
^ 3.33
8633 - 9150
5
0


Experts estimate for the period of 6 months

Pointer
Hodn.
12th 10th
Diameter
Median
Change
in%
Interval
Growth
Decrease
PX
986.85
994.40
1,000
^ 0.77
940-1 020
4
1
Dow Jones (U.S.)
13 424,23
13 618,80
13744
^ 1.45
13 250 - 13 800
4
1
NASDAQ (U.S.)
3 064,18
3 130,00
3,150
^2.15
2950 - 3208
4
1
FTSE 100 (UK)
5 805,60
5 938,60
6,000
^ 2.29
5580 - 6100
4
1
DAX (Germany)
7 261,25
7 417,80
7,449
^ 2.16
7 010 - 7 600
4
1
Nikkei 225 (JPN)
8 577,93
9 029,80
9,050
^ 5.27
8716 - 9350
5
0

Rating this week performed:

  • Menčík Thomas, George Šimara - CYRRUS
  • Libor Bucek, Jan Mach, Milan Nedbálek - FINANCE Zlín
  • Patrick Hudec - Generali PPF Asset Management, a fund manager společnost
  • Karel Handbag, Miroslav Hlavoň - CAPITAL GRANT
  • Jaroslav Brychta - X-Trade Brokers

The tables contain a summary of the estimates of experts in the list. The column "Actual value" represents the value of the monitored indices (Friday's closing value), from which experts in their estimates came out. With this value, the estimates of experts after a period of one to six months, compared to evaluate success. "Median" is a number that is in the middle the size of a structured set of estimates and "Interval Estimates" lists the minimum and maximum estimate file. Columns "Increase / Decrease" indicate the number of experts assume that the index of the period under consideration, given the current value rises or falls.
Note: Estimates are in the form of non-binding opinions with regard to the expected development in the next one month and a half year. The fact, however, may substantially differ from the estimates of experts. Experts even Kurzy.czassume no responsibility for these differences.

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Tento týden převládal na trzích spíše optimismus / BIG EXPERT - zahraniční trhy: týden od 15. 10. 2012

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