eTrader (eTrader)
Macroeconomics  |  October 22, 2012 13:28:46

Vs American markets. elections in late 2012


U.S. stock indexes, respectively. SP 500 after assurances Mario Draghi at the beginning of August rose tr in the next 50 days to logical levels of resistance around 1,450 points.Although Fed QE3 was announced on Thursday 13 September this year, stock markets across the many expectations of some experts grow, rather decline or move around neutral. The market is not used to fulfill the expectations of the majority.

QE3 task was mainly to stabilize markets and prevent any potential decline of 20 percent, which still hangs like a sword of Damocles over the stock markets in the U.S. As a result diametrically opposed views on the solution to the name issue "Fiscal Cliff" in the U.S..Fiscal reef may cause in the U.S. in January 2013 expiration of many tax breaks and can significantly reduce expenditure items the federal government. The consequence of ignoring this problem may be a recession in the first half of 2013, about 3 to 4 percent.

Given that the market discounts the economic development about 9 months in advance, most likely solution is expected at the last minute. The Democrats still have a chance to win back the Congress, even though they most likely fail.But there's also still rather theoretical possibility that Barack Obama will once again act as a dancer during the next TV debate. It does not   nerozhodnutým explain and convince voters that what they offer Mitt Romney is mathematically impossible in principle for the trick, though details in which is often hidden puzzle, are concealing that the program was not refuted. In the case of a fatal failure B. Obama would Mitt Romney could also become U.S. president and Republican Congress and the markets would have certainly helped to bridge the "fiscal cliff."

Mitt Romney proposes to reduce tax rates for all residents of all, the middle layer, but also for the richest, raise defense spending to reduce the deficit. It is mathematics Republicans. Problem which is yet undecided voters in the U.S. due to silence on the details of Romney, which prepared him for vice president, however, indicate that they subsequently canceled many exceptions that allow you to reduce the tax liability especially the middle class in the U.S.. Expenditure on financing your home, spending   pension insurance (U.S. also still have one pillar), student financing their own offspring, contributions to health care - all in the U.S. might be canceled. It remains only to hope that they would fall also exemptions for ethanol, but also the oil industry.If Americans can count and whether their memory is forgotten that the condition had George W. Bush, the U.S. economy at the end of its mandate in the White House, we learn that the 6th November this year

It can also be noted that the level of the currency pair EUR / USD de facto above the 1.28 gives room for continued slight decline in stock market indices. Pronounced drop below this level would mean the end of summer "rally" and prepare for the encounter with the reality of 2013.Possible solutions that are beginning to realize more and more investors, inflation 3-5 percent per year and the associated nominal GDP growth next few years at extremely low rates, is still perhaps the only possible solution politically acceptable in the U.S.. This would be managed to avoid any social unrest 30th years and 70th last century.

It will be interesting to observe the developments in the EU and U.S., which are issued by different routes solution.Already nominal growth in U.S. GDP quietly solves most problems do not only state tier but many company managers during the years 2004-2008, when many of them unwisely invested, but also increased employee wages to levels that are many long-term unsustainable.

 

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