Cyrrus (Cyrrus)
Czech markets  |  October 24, 2012 15:27:11

Erste Group Bank: prediction results for 3Q2012


Before Erste giant recorded a loss related to the sale of the CDS portfolio and an annual comparison of figures on many levels, so the profit is meaningless. Therefore, in the above table shows a comparison of time QoQ (3Q2012e/2Q2012) instead of the usual annual. At this q / q compared it to see that we expect continued negative development for the main categories of income due to fluctuations in the economies in which Erste operates and continued nízkoúrokovému environment. QoQ expected growth in total operating income (+1.2%) is only due to the expected settlement of very low income from trading in 2Q2012.

We expect Erste will continue strict cost control, which according to our projected to q / q drop slightly to 940 million and operating profit could then be slightly higher vs. 2Q2012 (we expect 858 million vs. EUR. 836 million EUR). Higher will, however, also created provisions for loan losses. They were in 2Q "artificially" reduced accounting operations in Hungary, now we assume that they get back to the level corresponding to annual guidance Erste. Specifically, we see the cost of risk at the level of EUR 490 million, mainly due to continued Hungary and Romania.

At the level of the financial result this time we do not expect any significant extraordinary items (which was in 2Q BCR goodwill amortization and income from repurchase hybrid bonds) and the profit before tax would be according to our projections reach 234 million, which is almost at the level of 2Q2012.Net profit, however, expect a third higher (q / q), because the effective tax rate would have an extremely high level in 2Q (effect of goodwill) descend to the "usual" level. Lower predict and profit attributable to minority shareholders, net profit attributable to shareholders of Erste Group Bank would be according to our projections in 3Q2012 to reach above 144 million euros.

Unlike many previous quarters this time the results would not be affected by Erste so many great one-offs and should thus reflect the real development of the bank in today's complex environment. Investors should focus primarily on the development of operating income, cost of risk (particularly in troubled countries, Hungary and Romania) and any indication of further write-down of goodwill in Romania in 4Q2012.

The whole prediction results for 3Q2012 Erste download here.



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Read also:

February 26, 2016Erste Group Bank: Akcie s 30% růstovým potenciálem Research (Investicniweb.cz)
November 07, 2015Erste Group Bank: Rozbor výsledků a výhled na IVQ2015 Research (Investicniweb.cz)

Erste Group Bank: predikce výsledků za 3Q2012

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