Investiční bankovnictví (Komerční banka)
Commodities  |  November 05, 2012 16:48:00

Crown in sight level 25.30 CZK / EUR


Regional currencies weakened at the beginning of the week. In addition to domestic factors contributed to this movement and loss of the euro against the dollar in the market. Crown scored a loss about four tenths of one percent, when she did not help the publication of the September retail sales. The crown has shifted in sight level 25.30 CZK / EUR. Exchange rate of the forint reflect disappointment of the October PMI indicator, which is the value of 49.9 points shifted to the zone contraction. The Hungarian currency so depreciated by a quarter percent. Zloty remained virtually unchanged levels around 4,121 PLN / EUR.

Czech retail sales in September fell short of market expectations, while in annual terms fell by 3.3%.This result was largely signed primarily to a lower number of working days compared to last September (this year there were two working days less). If we cleanse data for calendar effects, sales would have recorded a slight growth of 0.2% y / y. The mom then seasonally adjusted sales rose by 0.4%. Although the adjusted data look better, certainly not by us talk about better prospects for consumer demand.

Tomorrow we will see the other indicators of the Czech economy. September industry should again decrease significantly when we expect annual dynamics of -5.0% y / y. September statistics, however, the calendar will be burdened by unfavorable factors due to fewer working days this September.After cleaning the data should show a drop in industrial activity by 0.8% y / y.

The trade balance should show in September, seasonally adjusted surplus of CZK 26.0 billion due balance without commodities. Deterioration should occur in the commodity balance due to higher oil prices in CZK terms in previous months. Total balance without seasonal adjustment should conclude a surplus 27.8 billion CZK.

Tomorrow also starts a two-day meeting of the Polish central bank. The result should be expected to reduce the Polish market Wednesday's base rate by 25 bps to 4.50%.

Czech swap curve is now slightly decreased its slope when short end fell by 2 bp and the long end of about 3 bb.

Author: Marek Dřímal

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Koruna na dohled úrovně 25,30 CZK/EUR

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