Vladimír Urbánek (Kurzy.cz)
Macroeconomics  |  November 09, 2012 09:44:54

CNB: Inflation Report IV/12 - in r.2013 inflation will be slightly above the target


§          In 2013, the headline inflation due to tax changes move slightly above the CNB

§          Relevant inflation will be around the term, ie including the monetary policy horizon, located in the lower half of the target

§          Czech economy this year will fall by 0.9% due to a marked slowdown in external demand and generally subdued domestic demand in terms of ongoing fiscal consolidation. Next year GDP growth only slightly as a result of counter-action recovery in foreign demand and restrictive impact of government measures.   In 2014, the GDP growth accelerated to less than 2%

§          The nominal exchange rate against the euro will be broadly stable over the forecast horizon

§          Is consistent with the forecast decline in market interest rates and growth in 2014

The Bank Board of the Czech National Bank at its meeting on 8 11th 2012 approved this year's fourth report on inflation. This report is an essential part of the central bank's communication with the public in the inflation targeting regime. Main part of the Inflation Report is a description of the CNB's quarterly macroeconomic forecast. This is a key input for decisions on monetary policy. The purpose of the publication of forecasts and the assumptions of making monetary policy as transparent, comprehensible, predictable and therefore credible.Inflation Report presents CNB twice a year to the Chamber of Deputies of the Czech Republic.

Forecast described in Section II of this report predicts that overall inflation in the next year due to the projected increase in both VAT rates by 1 percentage point to remain slightly above the CNB. After this tax effect is then at the beginning of 2014 reduced slightly below target. Relevant inflation will be around the term, ie including the monetary policy horizon, located in the lower half of the target, in particular in connection with subdued domestic demand and moderate wage growth.

Significant slowdown in external demand and generally subdued domestic demand in terms of ongoing fiscal consolidation this year will result in a drop in GDP of 0.9%. Growth-will only affect net exports, other components of demand will hamper economic activity. In 2013, the recovery in GDP growth, but the pace will be - the counteractive effect of a gradual recovery in foreign demand and the impact of restrictive government measures - bland and reaches   just   about  0.2%. In 2014,   then   forecast expected   that   largely disappear dampening effects from previous years, and GDP growth will increase to 1.9%. There will no longer participate in renewed growth in household consumption, a slight increase in the investment activities and positive net exports.

On the labor market this development of economic activity reflected a slight decline in total employment and rise in unemployment. Roughly stagnant wage growth in the private sector during the coming year and the next to reflect downturn Czech economy. Wage growth accelerated in 2014 with a significant recovery in economic activity. Wages in the public sector will grow only a low rate. The nominal exchange rate against the euro since the beginning of 2013, roughly stable when subdued foreign demand acts on its course toward weakening, while in the opposite direction has a low view of foreign interest rates and declining current account deficit. Is consistent with the forecast decline in market interest rates and their growth until 2014.

·                      The full text of the Inflation Report (pdf, 6 MB)

·                  Tables and graphs of the Inflation Report in xls format

·       Current CNB forecast

Marek Petruš

Communications Director and spokesman for CNB

 

 

 

 

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ČNB: Zpráva o inflaci IV/12 - v r.2013 bude inflace lehce nad cílem

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