Vladimír Urbánek (Kurzy.cz)
Markets  |  November 12, 2012 08:46:59

Morning Report 11.12 - CEE currencies in the 45th week weakened


Key Events

·         CR: The inflation rate in October remained at 3.4% y / y In comparison with the previous month, consumer prices after three months of decline increased by 0.2%. Inflation is thus slightly higher than expected as guardian of price stability, the Czech National Bank (CNB). For mom inflation growth were especially expensive food, while decreased fuel prices. Yoy growth in prices were also higher food prices and housing costs and energy.

·         CNB worse prognosis regarding deficitthis year to 3.4%. In 2013, the deficit should be the CNB to 2.6% of GDP in 2014 to 2.4% of GDP. Previously published CNB forecast, in which worsened outlook for growth in the domestic economy and nadcházeních two years counts as a weaker koruna.

·         U.S.: Consumer confidence, as measured by the University of Michigan in November rose to 84.9 points, which is the highest value in the last five years.

The development of the foreign exchange market

·         Central European currencies on Friday managed to erase part of the previous losses. From the perspective of the past week have weakened.

·         Crown to the euro currency pair went during the morning hours under the surface of 25.40 CZK / EUR, which was in několikahaléřovém band for the rest of the day. What exactly was worth appreciation of the koruna can only speculate. Crown is moving in the same direction as the rest of the region.From the perspective of the past week, but crown weakened and under selling pressure could remain in this week. This should help the worse recently published data from the domestic economy, the rhetoric of the CNB and generally worse sentiment in financial markets. Against the dollar with some exceptions traded just below 20 CZK / USD.

·         Polish zloty against the euro could strengthen and quotations morning near the surface 4.17 PLN / EUR in the day headed to the level of 4.16 PLN / EUR. Better yet succeeded Hungarian forint, which had fallen below the level of 284 HUF / EUR.

·         The main currency pair continued weakening of the euro against the U.S. dollar. After more than two months, the course dimensioned below the 1.27 USD / EUR. The slowdown in the euro can be seen mostly negative information from the eurozone. The German economy according to the local Ministry of Economy slows and France are forecast by the local central bank gets the second half of this year to the recession. For these reasons it can be expected in the coming days, rather more euro losses.

Today's expected dates and events               

·         Czech Republic: Current account balance (September).

·         PL: Current Account Balance (September), trade balance (September).

·         SK: Consumer Price Index (October), industry (September), the average wage (September).

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Ranní zprávy 12.11. - CEE měny ve 45. týdnu oslabily

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