Investiční bankovnictví (Komerční banka)
Currencies  |  November 16, 2012 16:10:00

Crown lost a week in response to a comment GDP Governor M. Singer


The macroeconomic data over the last week was the most important data on GDP for Q312, the preliminary estimate published in most European countries. Number for the Czech Republic but have been disappointing when the economy fell further by 0.3% q / q, in annual terms, then her performance was 1.5% lower. Domestic economy for the fifth quarter in a row dropped. The recession and continues. For our annual estimate of GDP (-0.8%) are released figures downward risk. However important will possible revision. From this perspective, we have to wait until 7 December, when the data is specified, including the structure. In our view, nothing changes. In the remainder of this year and the beginning of the next one, stagnation of the economy. Over the next year, GDP should grow by 0.3%.

Data on GDP was a nasty surprise for the central bank, which had expected growth of 0.2% q / q. It only increased speculation that the CNB will further support the economy. In this spirit, the comment trailed Governor Miroslav Singer, who said the bank may have to around the middle of next year to ease monetary policy further. The main objective of the CNB's inflation remains in this context was also mentioned. Recently, because some voices from the mostly foreign analysts that the CNB gradually begins to abandon inflation targeting, while being the sole and central bank's primary goal remains inflation. The current high inflation is influenced by the growth of prices of goods cost character, while demand-pull inflation is at zero.The central bank's main monetary policy developments inflation (adjusted for tax changes) and it should have during November to get under two percent in the coming months gradually decline. In late 2013, it should be another sharp deceleration below 1.5%, and this would have had to request further easing of monetary policy to inflation significantly nepodstřelovala inflation target.

GDP and M. Singer comments reflected a weakening of the crown. During the week, the euro has lost about half a percent and became nejztrátovější currency in the region. CZK / EUR rate has moved beyond the 25.50. Looking more into history shows that weakens the crown from the middle of October, when it reached a local maximum in 24.70. Per month and domestic currency lost 3.25%.Although we can not completely exclude the possibility that the crown will continue to weaken, we see here the reasons for further significant weakening. The current level is a large margin above the equilibrium level and above the expected rate of CNB for next year (an average of 25.20 CZK / EUR). On present trends, we seem to be so direct market intervention unlikely. Since the crown last month undergone significant technical correction is a consolidation likely. Support area is located between 25.20 to 25.30 CZK / EUR.

In the next week will not be published from home no lights. Domestic financial markets will be influenced by developments abroad.


Author: Miroslav Frayer

Tyto zprávy pro vás vytváří Investiční bankovnictví KB.
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