Josef Kvarda (HighSky)
Investor's window  |  November 19, 2012 09:02:04

U.S. changes direction after the election?


November's presidential and congressional elections brought about major changes in the composition of key political positions. The president will remain in office and the next four years, its mandate compared to the 2008 elections despite weakening remains strong. In Congress there is also a major political shift. While Republicans compared to the last election two years ago, slightly lost, but retained a majority in the House of Representatives. Democrats will once again have the most representatives in the Senate with a slight strengthening in comparison with previous elections. Elections are generally successful Democrats and Republicans calling card at the same time bad they could not get more out of unflattering economic situation.But generally, the choices are not particularly good news for the markets, as the president still has no clear support for the Congress.

Elections are of great importance not only for the U.S. but also the world economy. Is answering a few important questions. Economics can count on the current course of monetary policy. Obama did not indicate a change in the head of the Fed, and if Bernanke does not want to continue, considered candidates do not mean turnaround. One exception is at the Fed know unity.

Continuation of the current administration also suggests far greater changes in the issue of trade imbalance with China. White House tries to maneuver to pressure the domestic industry in the form of comments in the WTO, but the essential steps are still short. Due to the pre-election rhetoric and position of China - the dominant creditors of U.S. debt - yet many suggest a bolder attitude towards politics undervalued Chinese yuan.

Election, but not resolved the fundamental question of uncertainty of fiscal cliff, that is currently set aggressive reduction of tax relief, public spending and the budget deficit. Thus, the factors associated with the risk of resumption of economic recession.Stabilization of public finances is a laudable intention, but in a weakened economy, the situation is not a term fiscal cliff entirely beside the point. While in the previous mentioned topics is all in the power of Democrats, significant changes in fiscal policy, the decision need bipartisan consensus. On the issue of the budget rather irreconcilable rivals. Both camps have been unable to find a compromise in the case of reduction of public deficit with the fact that many people just waiting for the elections. But next year will chair the new Congress, the political figures the same.

Democrats and Republicans perhaps unfortunately to the detriment of things your plan that stabilizes the imbalance of the budget, without the economy dropped off a cliff into recession. To the moment of truth -   First January - it is missing a few weeks, and both parties are aware of the seriousness of the situation. It is possible that the post-election rhetoric will undergo pragmatic changes. Democrats can nod to request confirmation of tax breaks for wealthier taxpayers to defer the fiscal cliff. The first signals after the elections, in addition to efforts to act, yet do not suggest leaving the trench warfare. Mainly Republicans can calculate with full effect the status quo: fiscal cliff with a sharp reduction in the budget deficit and the economic performance of the economy more vulnerable to the opposition would create advantageous starting position for the next election.Weakness on Wall Street after the election showed that the policy is not reliable. Betting on election MARYÁŠ still not completely closed.

Ing. Josef Kvarda

analytik společnosti HighSky Brokers, a.s.

Vystudoval ekonomickou fakultu VŠB v Ostravě, obor národohospodářství. Působil jako analytik ve společnosti ATLANTIK finanční trhy, kde se zabýval makroekonomickými analýzami a projekcemi hlavních světových ekonomik a finančních trhů, zejména měn. Od ledna 2012 pracuje jako analytik ve společnosti HighSky Brokers a pokrývá forexové a komoditní trhy. Rovněž se specializuje na světovou a domácí makroekonomickou situaci. Pravidelně přednáší o finančních trzích a fundamentální analýze na seminářích pro veřejnost. Součástí jeho analytické práce je také poskytování informací a komentářů.

O SPOLEČNOSTI
Společnost HighSky Brokers, a.s. je prvním obchodníkem s cennými papíry na českém trhu, který svým klientům poskytuje možnost obchodovat měny (forex), komodity, akcie, akciové indexy a dluhopisy prostřednictvím nové obchodní platformy MetaTrader 5. Tuto platformu využívá jako jeden z prvních i v Evropě. Společnost vznikla v roce 2010 a disponuje licencí České národní banky. Základní kapitál společnosti činí 37, 5 milionů korun.

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