World markets  |  December 06, 2012 16:07:58

Still in the dark - on the edge of the cliff / BIG EXPERT - foreign markets: from the 3rd week 12th 2,012


The continuing stalemate in the U.S. Congress on significant developments affecting the financial markets. The negotiations about the fiscal cliff have not yielded significant shift. In the game-saving packages and fiscal measures amounting to 4% of the annual GDP of the United States and the main scenario - finding a compromise between Democrats and Republicans and "ditching cans" again a few months - dominated markets. Towards the end of the year, which is also characterized by a general decline in liquidity, however, will increase investor uncertainty and we can still be witnessed higher volatility. Any real impact, however, the current uncertainty has. In recent weeks, the evident increase in extra payouts dividends next year would otherwise be subject to greater tax burden. Just as capital gains, which are associated with the realization of gains on sales of securities.Anyway significant stock market declines, except with the exception of cases relating to the agreement in the U.S. against all odds really happened, do not expect. Prices of risky assets are supported by active steps central banks and serious systemic risks eliminated.

It is worth mentioning also the impact of Fed operations. The central bank currently absorbs about 90% of the newly issued debt and the dollar is the main creator of the proceeds of bonds. Anyway, for the three weeks ending June extended operation Twist and the question whether and if so to what extent FED program replaces. Likewise hangs over any, third LTRO from the ECB and an expected reduction in key interest rates in the euro area by 25 bp(Either at the next meeting, or, more likely in the first quarter 2013). As the macro numbers are concerned, rather worse trend data from the U.S. economy, which started in November, continued in December. Reported data are obviously distorted storm impacts Sandy and we'll have to wait a few more weeks before it is apparent whether the observed fluctuations can really be fully attributed to the ravages of a hurricane.

Patrick Hudec, Generali PPF Asset Management,
fund manager společnost

Expert opinions on the future development in selected foreign markets monitored through indices and comparison with the Czech capital market (PX) in the next month and a half, a week from 3 12th 2012th


Experts estimate for the period of one month

Pointer
Hodn.
30th 11th
Diameter
Median
Change
in%
Interval
Growth
Decrease
PX
997.31
994.20
1,000
ˇ -0.31
975-1 010
3
2
Dow Jones (U.S.)
13 025,58
12 968,80
12970
ˇ -0.44
12800 - 13164
2
3
NASDAQ (U.S.)
3 010,24
2 986,40
2,990
ˇ -0.79
2950 - 3010
0
5
FTSE 100 (UK)
5 866,80
5 853,60
5,850
ˇ -0.22
5750 - 5968
2
3
DAX (Germany)
7 405,50
7 408,60
7,450
^ 0.04
7230 - 7593
3
2
Nikkei 225 (JPN)
9 446,01
9 374,00
9,450
ˇ -0.76
9100 - 9640
3
2


Experts estimate for the period of 6 months

Pointer
Hodn.
30th 11th
Diameter
Median
Change
in%
Interval
Growth
Decrease
PX
997.31
1 023,20
1,030
^ 2.60
960 - 1 050
4
1
Dow Jones (U.S.)
13 025,58
13 335,00
13425
^ 2.38
12900 - 13600
4
1
NASDAQ (U.S.)
3 010,24
3 062,40
3,100
^ 1.73
2 850 - 3 200
4
1
FTSE 100 (UK)
5 866,80
5 941,20
6,050
^ 1.27
5590 - 6100
4
1
DAX (Germany)
7 405,50
7 476,60
7,580
^ 0.96
6840 - 7743
4
1
Nikkei 225 (JPN)
9 446,01
9 500,20
9,520
^ 0.57
8950 - 9831
4
1

Rating this week performed:

  • Menčík Thomas, George Šimara - CYRRUS
  • Libor Bucek, Jan Mach, Milan Nedbálek - FINANCE Zlín
  • Patrick Hudec - Generali PPF Asset Management, a fund manager společnost
  • Karel Handbag, Miroslav Hlavoň - CAPITAL GRANT
  • Jaroslav Brychta - X-Trade Brokers

The tables contain a summary of the estimates of experts in the list. The column "Actual value" represents the value of the monitored indices (Friday's closing value), from which experts in their estimates came out. With this value, the estimates of experts after a period of one to six months, compared to evaluate success."Median" is a number that is in the middle the size of a structured set of estimates and "Interval Estimates" lists the minimum and maximum estimate file. Columns "Increase / Decrease" indicate the number of experts assume that the index of the period under consideration, given the current value rises or falls.
Note: Estimates are in the form of non-binding opinions with regard to the expected development in the next one month and a half year. The fact, however, may substantially differ from the estimates of experts. Experts even Kurzy.cz assume no responsibility for these differences.

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