World markets  |  December 13, 2012 17:22:46

Do not become a busy Christmas / BIG EXPERT - foreign markets: a week from 10 12th 2,012


Towards the end of the capital markets more closely bottling attention to American politics, who are trying to find a solution to the fiscal cliff. If there is no agreement, from 1 January activated automatic spending cuts and the abolition of tax exemptions, which, according to preliminary estimates, lead to a decline in GDP of 3%. This, of course, do not want to commit neither Republicans nor Democrats, so fiercely negotiate. What is the current situation and the capital markets have to fear?

According to the last statement probably to an agreement before the end of the year there. The two largest parties each hold against the proposals, which are usually known in advance that the other party does not. Despite some progress but know, at the side of the Republicans.Their camp is beginning to form a large group that pushes your boss Boehner to be more willing to compromise. Even by this group of politicians and reconciled with tax increases for the wealthiest 2% of the population, of which lasts for a Democratic President Obama. Exchange should be to reduce spending on healthcare programs Medicare and Medicaid. Do battle with the Minister of Finance put Geithner, who said that his office will have no problem to let the U.S. fall from the fiscal cliff, if politicians agree. And he, as a necessary part of the deal sees increase in taxes for the wealthiest, Obama is of the view. That the whole situation was very simple, there is no fixed final term. Markets can therefore live in uncertainty even at the beginning of next year.

After some time came from Greece, one positive message. They were able to purchase the entire planned volume of bonds under repurchase bonds. This will reduce Greece debt by 20 billion euros and thus meeting one of the conditions for the allocation of the next tranche of aid. But that, in my opinion, good news from Greece for a longer period ends and the 1st quarter, we can expect more turbulence as Greece will ask international creditors on additional payment.

Water should stir on Wednesday night the U.S. central bank. It shall notify its GDP and inflation outlook for next year, which is the information that will be very closely monitored markets. In addition, analysts expect comments on ending surgery Twist. In a survey of Bloomberg, most economists expect that with the end twist extends QE3, which markets would be further confirmation that the Fed is determined to do everything possible to speed up the local economic growth.

By Christmas So, while there are only two weeks usually peaceful, the capital markets but can still be pretty stuffy.

Tomáš Menčík, CYRRUS


Expert opinions on the future development in selected foreign markets monitored through indices and comparison with the Czech capital market (PX) in the next month and a half, in the week of 10 12th 2012th


Experts estimate for the period of one month

Pointer
Hodn.
7th 12th
Diameter
Median
Change
in%
Interval
Growth
Decrease
PX
993.52
1 006,20
1,006
^ 1.28
990-1 030
4
1
Dow Jones (U.S.)
13 155,13
13 122,80
13164
ˇ -0.25
13 000 - 13 200
3
2
NASDAQ (U.S.)
2 978,04
3 009,40
3,010
^ 1.05
2990 - 3025
5
0
FTSE 100 (UK)
5 914,40
5 922,20
5,913
^ 0.13
5890 - 5968
2
3
DAX (Germany)
7 517,80
7 567,60
7,575
^0.66
7 500 - 7620
4
1
Nikkei 225 (JPN)
9 527,39
9 517,00
9,520
ˇ -0.11
9400 - 9640
2
3


Experts estimate for the period of 6 months

Pointer
Hodn.
7th 12th
Diameter
Median
Change
in%
Interval
Growth
Decrease
PX
993.52
1 009,20
1,026
^ 1.58
950-1 040
4
1
Dow Jones (U.S.)
13 155,13
13 329,00
13425
^ 1.32
12 800 - 13 700
3
2
NASDAQ (U.S.)
2 978,04
3 143,00
3,163
^ 5.54
2 790 - 3 500
4
1
FTSE 100 (UK)
5 914,40
5 974,80
6,086
^ 1.02
5790 - 6100
3
2
DAX (Germany)
7 517,80
7 539,60
7,650
^ 0.29
7100 - 7775
3
2
Nikkei 225 (JPN)
9 527,39
9 536,20
9,700
^ 0.09
8900 - 9831
3
2

Rating this week performed:

  • Menčík Thomas, George Šimara - CYRRUS
  • Libor Bucek, Jan Mach, Milan Nedbálek - FINANCE Zlín
  • Patrick Hudec - Generali PPF Asset Management, a fund manager společnost
  • Karel Handbag, Miroslav Hlavoň - CAPITAL GRANT
  • Jaroslav Brychta - X-Trade Brokers

The tables contain a summary of the estimates of experts in the list. The column "Actual value" represents the value of the monitored indices (Friday's closing value), from which experts in their estimates came out. With this value, the estimates of experts after a period of one to six months, compared to evaluate success. "Median" is a number that is in the middle the size of a structured set of estimates and "Interval Estimates" lists the minimum and maximum estimate file. Columns "Increase / Decrease" indicate the number of experts assume that the index of the period under consideration, given the current value rises or falls.
Note: Estimates are in the form of non-binding opinions with regard to the expected development in the next one month and a half year. The fact, however, may substantially differ from the estimates of experts. Experts even Kurzy.cz assume no responsibility for these differences.

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