Cyrrus (Cyrrus)
Markets  |  December 14, 2012 10:40:43

Joint Stock breakfast 12.14 - Fiscal cliff, Basel III, PMI, car sales, macro


Overview of the main event for Friday, the 14th December 2012

USA  

Negotiations on a cliff again progressed  

ASIA  

Better behold PMI HSBC in China  

EUROPE  

Basel 3 postponed; lowered the rating outlook GB  

SUPERSPAD

Car sales in the EU

COMMODITIES

Oil

Upcoming Events

9:30 Germany PMI
EZ PMI 10:00
11:00 EZ inflation
14:30 U.S. inflation
14:58 U.S. Markit PMI preliminary U.S.
15:15 U.S. industrial production

USA

Fiscal cliff:

  • Obama met with Boehner and Geithner (Minister of Finance)
  • All parties have issued almost identical statements: the meeting was frank and "communication remains open"

ASIA

China:

  • According to the HSBC PMI 50.9 b vs. eyelets. 50.8 pts, 50.5 b last
  • Above 50b. already in the previous month, which was the first time in 13M
  • It seems that the decline in exports is replaced by higher domestic demand

Japan:

  • Tankan index (trust large companies) was worse even worst since 03/2010
  • This increases the likelihood that after the weekend parliamentary election incentives come

EUROPE

Meeting of Finance Ministers of the European Union:

  • Yesterday mainly dealt with how to restore the credibility of the banking sector
  • Also looking for a way in the future to help banks in trouble - from next year it will start working
  • In 1H 2013, had come to an agreement that the ESM will be able to directly help banks
  • Risk for negotiations next year but are elections in Germany and Italy

Banks:

  • EU pre-agreed with the European Parliament that the Basel III (regulatory measures for banks) will apply as from 01/2014, originally was speculated mid 2013
  • There are many reasons why it does not implement the Basel III as early as next year, for example, some states want to directly incorporate the rules into the rules bonuses for bank managers
  • Practically this delay but not essential, because the market and the individual regulators forcing banks to meet Basel III. now, so it's more a question of the continued uncertainty of what exactly the rules adopted in the EU legislation. On the other hand, the banks that are in compliance with the edge will have additional time to bring them to the desired level

United Kingdom:

  • S & P lowers outlook from "stable" to "negative"
  • But it is still rated AAA
  • Revision outlook means that there is 33% chance that over the next 2 years will downgrade
  • Risk is the weak economy

SUPERSPAD

Car sales in the EU in November:

  • Sales of cars in the EU dropped by 10% after a 4.8% decline in October
  • The lowest sales in 19 years
  • All markets fell except for Great Britain

COMMODITIES

Oil

  • Moderate growth due makrodatům from China
  • China is the second largest consumer of oil in the world
  • Brent crude oil prices currently on the value of $ 108.64 / barrel, WTI crude oil price on the value of $ 86.71 / barrel
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Akciová snídaně 14.12. - fiskální útes, Basel III, PMI, prodeje aut, makro

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