TRIMBROKER (TRIMBROKER)
Markets  |  December 14, 2012 17:00:08

The reef can beat QE wave


iPoint.cz This week UdiALU an interesting thing. We were accustomed, after announcing new incentives generally come monetárnych bargain Administrations (or expectation and overcome), but the short-term trend is neobracal. Either we have seen strong growth before and the correction, because we have seen growth since the announcement of incentives. Now, neither one nor the other. QE was reported on Wednesday, intraday growth was rejected yesterday, come fall, continues today.

To date, we talked about two reasons, today we can already add a third. The first is the fiscal cliff.Already we have seen before FOMC representations of the Congress that no progress in negotiations did not occur (pamätáte the two representations from under three weeks that a deal is on the way?). There was an approximation to same opinions, but although the forms of compromise bipartizánska (represented by the two parties the Republicans even Democrats), still we see representations of relatively hard core Democrats or Republicans. Democrats say that taxes must go up because so requires demographics (aging of one generation and its strong retirement) and that if the deal falls, let the economy will further fiscal reef and introduce the automatic cuts. Republicans raising taxes does not want to hear, they say that it kills economic growth and want to increase your income up to the budget through the clutter of tax exemptions.Even zaznievajú view of core conservative Republicans (100 representatives) that those Republican congressmen and senators, who encourage agreement on raising taxes, will be systematically replaced. And it is already strong words. The whole debate is essentially revolves around one things for redistribution. It does not take Einstein to give to understand that a large army and spending on the welfare state (Obamacare) in combination with tax cuts creating huge debts, which has an economy prerastajú through my head. Republicans say that the money will remain with those who have created them no matter be, how rich they are. Democrats say that this money should be reallocated and to cover rising expenses. Strikes are huge and the lobby certainly works at 120%, precisely because of the negotiations I move slowly if at all.Before Christmas is probably nothing misses the issue.

The second reason is the Fed's new communications, which has set specific criteria for retention zero rate. Team Fed not wish to be anything changed (view remains zero rate until 2015 and Bernanke said that if the unemployment rate drops even or one criterion is met, it does not automatically change the monetary policy). However, the market had already begun to speculate that the labor market could be more acceptable to the Fed even more than in 2015 (when tempe 140,150 thousand. Monthly jobs created also in 2014), especially when Bernanke said that the rate is possible peacefully heave even before I will be satisfied by a certain rate of unemployment.

The third reason for the fundamentally strong team and USD weakness and precious metal stocks is the fact that inflation in the U.S. is not really problem these days. On a monthly basis showed November inflation fall, and next to each other. Are falling mainly energy. So the current QE will not cause inflation, but tlmí deflationary pressures spomaľujúcej economy.

Today's marketing is peaceful and nerozhýbalo the good data even after the U.S. industry. European data came out mixed, what to shares and the euro did not help neither. France's rating was confirmed by the Fitch, but a comment from the rating agency as read as the last warning and no reassurance. Ends EU summit at which europolitbyro revealed that the situation is more serious in Cypre how splashed, banking Union will be more likely to continue on the paper (though europrezident Rompuy said that in the second half of 2013banks can obtain funds from the ESM (we think it's just as likely existence itself Banking Union at that time well enough) and what decision with a future Eurogroup is postponed to January.

U.S. stocks higher after a decline compared to the peak novembrovému be directed to the level of 1400, the level of 1440 remains as RESISTANCE

At the weekend, will be in Japan election that according to surveys, should win the Liberal Democratic Party with its chairman Abe-m, which may have concerning the question of incentives, pro-active with views of what has already received JPY weakest level against the USD since April, while also Japanese stocks at 8-month highs. So the elections will be carefully monitored.

Author:Thomas Swimmer | TRIM Broker, as | Trading on exchanges TRIM Broker


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