Investiční bankovnictví (Komerční banka)
World markets  |  December 17, 2012 08:25:00

Rate USD / EUR is located at its important resistance


The euro last week significantly improved its position when the exchange rate USD / EUR shifted from 1.2900 up to 1.3154 this morning. Weekly earnings amounted to over 2%. Now the exchange rate USD / EUR trading near its resistance of 1.3172 / 1.3200. To break it would take a stronger impulse from the Eurozone, but the end of a difficult matter. Far more likely is that traders will conclude before the end of their long euro positions and the USD / EUR will return to near 1.3000.
In the euro zone this week will release figures on foreign trade.Southern States trade balance is improving, but unfortunately it is not yet improving the competitiveness of these countries, but rather the weakness of domestic demand, which reduces imports. Since these countries have a single unified currency, restoring their price competitiveness will have to come through relatively drastic way of lower growth in wages and prices. Will be published in the middle of the German Ifo index for December, where our colleagues expect improvement in all folders.
The U.S. continues to be given to the negotiations about the fiscal restrictions ("fiscal cliff"). Our colleagues from SG still believe that the political parties to agree on the end of a temporary extension of relief (or give this scenario 90%). If the U.S. and the parties agree restrictions of 600 billionUSD coming into force, it would certainly shock the markets and the dollar would further lose. However, the most likely would be in early 2013 passed laws retroactively. In addition to these meetings will be published in the U.S. data from the real estate market (Wednesday and Thursday), industrial indices from around New York (today), Philadelphia (Thursday) and Kansas (Friday), regular new applications for unemployment and finally orders of durable goods (Friday ).



Author: Jiri Skop

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