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Currencies  |  December 17, 2012 11:02:26

Morning comments on EUR / USD


Eurodollars on Friday reached its maximum 6-month and created a new high on the price of 1.3172. The dollar lost due to reports from the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) on further easing of monetary policy and the results of Core CPI index (CPI). The U.S. Labor Department reported Friday that consumer prices in the U.S. in November for the first six months dropped by 0.3 percent. Fed can continue through moderate inflation in its monetary policy. According to Wednesday's statement will keep interest rates near zero at least until unemployment drops to 6.5 percent and is unlikely to be that inflation will be higher than 2.5 percent.

The dollar lost all last week and failed to respond to the strengthening euro. Euro strengthened against the dollar by 1.8 percent and is thus the largest strengthening since September, when there were positive reports on aid to Greece and lowering interest rates in the euro area.
Euro gains are linked to negotiations on the fiscal cliff in the USA. If politicians failed in its attempt to reach a consensus, it would mean an automatic humiliation spending and tax increases totaling $ 600 billion, which would plunge the U.S. economy back into recession.
Conversely solve the fiscal cliff, would revert back to the position of the dollar safe haven and hurt more speculative currencies. The political struggle in America had ceased due to the national tragedy of Connecticut. It would be surprising if we lived to see the solution before Christmas.
Today at 11:00 AM we expect euro zone trade balance and speech 15:30 ECB chief Mario Draghi, who will be at the European Parliament assess the course of this year.
Eurodollars, which on Friday was able to break through the 1.3125 resistance, moves in the upward channel. During the Asian session is created and the price correction candle is heading to the bottom of the channel, also predicts a slight correction bearish divergence on the RSI. Today will be important if the euro will remain strong in growth, or to look again at 1.3000.

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