Research (Česká spořitelna)
Macroeconomics  |  December 17, 2012 10:37:56

CNB will this week discuss rates. The change is not waiting, but it could be an intervention in the market with a crown


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The most important event this week in the Czech Republic is the Czech National Bank meeting. This rate will not change (0.05%), but it will definitely be a debate on FX interventions. So far, the crown is relatively reasonable (above 25), and although most bankers are a priori FX intervention does not, probably will want the model of E. Zamrazilová see analysis of the potential impact (vs export promotion. Negative impact on household demand) and data for 1Q13 (to see how the household falls further increase VAT). So do not expect any change in the monetary policy. If, however, the CNB anything else came duck will respond weakening.

Crown to hold above 25.20, movement is low. If surprised CNB (eg decisions on early intervention) or no negative developments in the EMU, it will remain so this week.

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ČNB bude tento týden jednat o sazbách. Změna se nečeká, ale mohlo by dojít na intervenci na trhu s korunou

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