Vladimír Urbánek (Kurzy.cz)
Currencies  |  December 18, 2012 09:46:15

The Hungarian forint weakened after speculation the central bank's behavior change


iPoint.cz Speculation on the change in the behavior of the local central bank downlinked Hungarian forint. It depreciated by more than 1% of the 284 to 288 to the euro. CB reportedly considering that it completely stopped selling two-week bills, which is its main tool to control liquidity in the market. If it resigned, the excess liquidity would logically lead to a weakening of the forint. CB these speculations rather quickly rejected by the market but obviously unconvinced. Indeed, in the case of Hungary is not even much to wonder. It enters into the minds of investors, mainly due to its non-standard steps euphemistically speaking for over two years. But the truth is that we are such a move does not make much sense. If the CB wants to ease monetary policy, it can further reduce the rate.A weakening forint certainly not want to, households still hold a good portion of mortgages in foreign currency (mainly CHF).

Today while sitting BR Hungarian CB. A further cut is expected, as in the last 4 meetings, when rates fell by 1 percentage point to 6%. To further decrease would probably occurred regardless of the data (due to fights Simorova Orban and wings). Even the more it speaks for release. Inflation outlook, including declining (real rates are positive), the economic outlook just got worse. By the way, next year mandate expires Simor and Orban into his chair he will be able to appoint someone closer to your heart, so it can be assumed that the CB will the government even more on hand.

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Maďarský forint oslabuje po spekulacích na změnu chování centrální banky

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