Investiční bankovnictví (Komerční banka)
Currencies  |  December 18, 2012 16:31:00

Will meet tomorrow to CNB monetary policy


Trading crown during Tuesday's session was very quiet, as evidenced by the narrow interval in which the rate CZK / EUR held. Domestic currency against the euro today opened at 25.24 and its lowest during the day slightly firmed. In the afternoon, the rate was around 25.17 boundaries. The regional currencies and the Czech koruna was the only one who scored earlier today at least slight gains. Polish zloty virtually stagnated, the Hungarian forint has lost a quarter of a percent.

Losses of Central European currencies could be associated with today's meeting the Hungarian central bank. The expected cut its key interest rate by 25 bps to 5.75% two-year minimum, the forint but mainly reacted to the words of Governor Simor A. that the central bank could continue to cut interest rates if the market sentiment will continue to improve.We waited and updated macroeconomic forecasts, under which lowered its estimate for GDP growth next year to 0.5% (previous forecast 0.7%) after -1.4% this year unchanged. The inflation rate should then slow from 5.7% this year (5.8%) to 3.5% (5.0%).

Tomorrow, the focus moves to the Czech Republic. Here, the central bank will sit on its monetary policy. CNB last cut its key rate to a "technical zero" and is ready to keep rates at record low levels until appear significant inflationary pressures. We assume that the central bank will leave rates unchanged until the end of 2014. CNB previously announced, it will not reduce rates into negative territory and instead will prefer instruments that affect the exchange rate. Attention markets will focus on any comments specifically to the CZK / EUR.Stronger statements and have the potential to rate cuckold after the press conference, if only because this month released data from the domestic economy sounded its inflationary direction (GDP, inflation, wages), which indicates the need for the increased monetary stimulus. The direct foreign exchange interventions, however, is not yet time, as mentioned by some board members. For their implementation will be monitored deflationary risks, the attention it deserves inflationary expectations of corporations and financial markets. But for now, the threat of deflation, these indicators do not reveal.


Author: Miroslav Frayer

Tyto zprávy pro vás vytváří Investiční bankovnictví KB.
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