Research (Investicniweb.cz)
Commodities  |  December 19, 2012 16:56:58

Grantham: Humanity awaits apocalypse of biblical proportions



Legendary investor and co-founder Jeremy Grantham of GMO has been a year and a half spent on the explosion in commodity prices. In his essay devoted space to further the fate of mankind. It's not exactly optimistic reading.

Grantham believes that the planet is not able to endlessly feed the growing human race. Even claim that the population has already exceeded all reasonable limits and is only a matter of time comes a moment to make her face this fact openly. "The growth of the population dependent on a limited number of resources can not last forever," says Grantham. "The prices of metals, oil and food are starting to reflect this fact."

Modern times with modern worries

According to his calculations, our planet is able to sustain without major problems around 1.5 billion people, we are but five times more. By 2050, people may even be an additional 3 billion more.

In the past (with the exception of the last 200 years), the growth of the population naturally regulated by food availability, thus avoid irrational population growth. According to Grantham will not be long before today's humanity forced to return to this proven model. For optimists, while concerns are not applicable, since the future scientific advances can solve all the problems in the last two centuries emerged. With the Grantham fundamentally disagree. Why?

Global population growth

In 1798 he published an English economist Thomas Malthus' Essay on the Principle of Population, in which they expressed their concerns about the disparity between exponential population growth and growth in arithmetic only the amount of available food. Society of the 21st century, Malthus' fears have no choice but to confirm and supplement his essay on finding oil and other natural resources that the population growth rate even more magnified. However, an oil one day dry up, and nobody knows what will follow.

View the world's population growth by 2100

Commodity prices

During the past 100 years, we have witnessed a long-term downward trend in the prices of certain commodities, behind which were constantly evolving technology to facilitate access to their resources. According to Grantham However, we have continued drop in prices did not wait, on the contrary.

Commodity prices have ceased to decline

Why is Jeremy Grantham so big worrier, can be found on the web Investment

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